Vistra: Powering Back After the Pullback?Vistra Corp.BATS:VSTFreedomHoldingVistra Corporation (VST) — Independent Power Producer Ticker: VST Rating: Buy Entry Price: $147.00 Target Price: $167.78 Stop-Loss: $133.15 Investment Horizon: October 13, 2026 Vistra (NYSE: VST) looks attractive after what appears to be an overdone pullback, supported by a 31% YoY increase in adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations and near-complete hedging of generation volumes for 2026–2027. Additional catalysts include high fleet availability and the $1.2 billion remaining under the company’s share repurchase authorization. From a technical perspective, the stock found support in the $134–135 area and has moved back above $140. A rebound in RSI and weakening bearish MACD momentum also suggest that selling pressure may be fading. Key Investment Thesis Vistra Corp. is one of the largest integrated power companies in the United States, operating across competitive electricity generation and retail energy markets. The company serves approximately 5 million customers and has around 44 GW of generation capacity, including nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage assets. Strong results and extensive hedging provide greater confidence in the company’s outlook. In Q2, adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations rose 31% YoY to $1.77 billion, while first-half adjusted EBITDA increased 26% to $3.26 billion. Vistra maintained its 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $6.8–7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth investments (FCFbG) of $3.93–4.73 billion. The company has hedged approximately 100% and 94% of its expected generation volumes for 2026 and 2027, respectively. This provides greater visibility into margins and cash flows while reducing exposure to short-term volatility in electricity prices. High fleet availability supports operational reliability heading into Q3. In July, ERCOT load reached a record 91.1 GW, surpassing the previous peak by 6.5%. Meanwhile, Vistra’s commercial fleet availability remained at or above 97% during periods of extreme heat in Texas and PJM. Strong asset performance during periods of peak demand reduces the risk of unplanned outages and the need to purchase replacement power at elevated spot prices, supporting the company’s ability to meet its full-year guidance. Continued share buybacks could provide an additional tailwind for the shares. As of August 3, Vistra had approximately $1.2 billion remaining under its authorized share repurchase program, which the company expects to complete by the end of 2027. Between June 30 and August 3, Vistra repurchased $68 million worth of shares at an average price of $154.78. This highlights the company’s continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders, although the timing and size of future repurchases remain discretionary. The technical setup points to recovery potential following the recent correction. After falling approximately 21% from its local high of $171.35, the stock found support near $134.75 and moved back above $140. RSI has recovered to 45.8, while bearish MACD momentum has weakened, suggesting that selling pressure is beginning to ease.