XAUUSDGold vs US DollarICMARKETS:XAUUSDKironKavanaghGold is holding a clean series of higher lows on the 15M and price is currently pressing the 4416.50 pivot at 4416.32. STRUCTURE The leg I'm working from runs 4367.18 → 4428.86, a 61.68 point impulse. Since the 4367.18 session low, every pullback has been bought at a higher price, and the reclaim of 4416.50 flipped the last intraday supply shelf into support. Until that sequence breaks, pullbacks are the trade, not the top. KEY LEVELS Resistance: 4428.86 (session high), 4449.84 (major swing high) Pivot: 4416.50 Support: 4405.30, 4390.00, 4377.37, 4367.18 FIBONACCI Retracement is anchored 4367.18 → 4428.86: 0.382 — 4405.30 0.500 — 4398.00 0.618 — 4390.74 0.786 — 4380.38 Extensions: 1.272 at 4445.64, 1.618 at 4466.98 What makes this setup worth taking is that the fibs are not floating in space. The 0.382 lands directly on the 4405 breakout retest shelf, and the 0.618 lands on the 4387–4392 consolidation base that has been touched multiple times. Two independent methods pointing at the same prices is the confluence I want before committing. SETUPS Primary long — entry 4402, stop 4385, target 4445.64. Roughly 2.6R. Entry sits between the 0.5 and 0.382; the stop is deliberately below the 4387–4392 base rather than inside it. 4428.86 is a sensible partial. Deep long — entry 4378, stop 4364, target 4416.50. Roughly 2.75R. This is the 0.786 and swing-low reaction. The tight stop is what makes the ratio work, and it is also what makes it easy to get wicked out, so I want a reaction candle here rather than a resting limit order. Counter-trend short — entry 4440, stop 4452, target 4405.30. Roughly 2.9R. Requires a break of 4428.86 first and a push into supply under the 4449.84 high. Best ratio of the three, but it fades the prevailing trend. Size accordingly. INVALIDATION A 15M close below 4367.18 breaks the higher-low sequence and kills both longs. At that point the short becomes the primary idea and the fib anchor has to be redrawn. The obvious caveat: 4428.86 is a young high. If price makes a new one, the whole retracement re-anchors and these levels shift with it.