NQ Weekly Outlook – Week 33 of 2026 (17-21 AUG)E-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI:NQ1!UA_CAPITALNQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK NQ Weekly Recap Outlook Price tapped the Flip Zone and activated the Short Scenario. The short trigger came around 10 AM on Wednesday, allowing us to capture a 152-point, 0.5% move to the downside. We took three partial profits according to the plan, with the remaining position stopped at breakeven. On Thursday, the Flip Zone was broken exactly as planned with a 4-hour candle close above the level. Following the 1-hour candle retest, we entered Long Scenario 3 on Thursday morning. That trade delivered a 163-point, 0.54% move to the upside. We again took three partial profits according to the plan, with the remaining position stopped at breakeven. Two very successful NQ futures trades, with both positions closing profitably. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) Weekly Execution Metrics Total Trades Activated: 5 (excluding open running equities) Winning Trades: 5 Losing Trades: 0 Win Rate: 100% (on closed or partially closed sequences) Index Options: 1 Trade (1 Win — QQQ) Futures Desk: 4 Trades (3 Wins — NQ, 1 Win — ES) Tactical Equities: 4 Plays (1 TP, risk-free runner; 3 Open) Precious Metals: 1 Play (Silver, Open) Result: Another green week. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. Long term: Risk on Mid term: Risk on Short term: Risk on The overall market structure remains risk on across all three time horizons. However, macro liquidity risks remain an important source of downside vulnerability. If negative macro news flow emerges, we could see sharp flushes lower despite the current risk-on structure. For this reason, we will continue to prioritize disciplined execution, confirmation at key levels, and aggressive profit-taking as positions move in our favor. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 DEMAND 1 (30080) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50-point advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 29974. Long Scenario 2 DEMAND 2 (29625) This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50-point advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 29500. Long Scenario 3 Flip Level (30348) This is the Flip Level. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 4-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. Trigger: Price must break above the level and produce a bullish 4-hour candle close above the zone. A subsequent retest of the level provides the entry trigger. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50-point advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 30282. Short Scenario 1 Supply (30530) This level represents the lower band of the Flip Zone. A confirmed rejection from this area could provide a tactical short opportunity. Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 4-hour bearish rejection candle. Targets: Take partial profits after every 50-point decline. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 30628. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully. 6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours). This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.