Fundamental Market Analysis for August 17, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The euro starts the new week from a firmer fundamental position following Friday’s weakening of the US dollar. US retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, while more moderate inflation data reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. For EURUSD, this weakens the US currency’s advantage and leaves room for a moderate recovery in the pair. The euro is also supported by expectations of further ECB tightening. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September amid inflation remaining above target and continued resilience in the eurozone economy. The divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB policy expectations is becoming more favorable for the European currency, although high energy prices continue to limit market confidence. The main risk remains a recovery in demand for the US dollar if global market sentiment deteriorates or US data come in stronger than expected. However, at the start of the session, the fresh repricing of US monetary policy remains the dominant factor. As long as this backdrop persists, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro, and the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD. Trading idea: BUY 1.15700, SL 1.15400, TP 1.16450