QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 33 of 2026 (17-21 AUG)Invesco QQQ Trust Series IBATS:QQQUA_CAPITALQQQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK QQQ Weekly Recap Outlook Price first rejected from the Flip Zone at Wednesday's open, activating the Short Scenario. We took the short setup and captured a 3.6-point, 0.5% move to the downside. We took three partial profits according to the plan, with the remaining position stopped at entry. Then, on Thursday, price broke out above the Flip Zone and activated Long Scenario 3 after retesting the Flip Level. The retest entry delivered a 2.5-point, 0.34% move to the upside. We took two partial profits, with the remaining position stopped at entry. Two trades were taken this week, and both were closed in profit. A very profitable week overall. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) Weekly Execution Metrics Total Trades Activated: 5 (excluding open running equities) Winning Trades: 5 Losing Trades: 0 Win Rate: 100% (on closed or partially closed sequences) Index Options: 1 Trade (1 Win — QQQ) Futures Desk: 4 Trades (3 Wins — NQ, 1 Win — ES) Tactical Equities: 4 Plays (1 TP, risk-free runner; 3 Open) Precious Metals: 1 Play (Silver, Open) Result: Another green week. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions. Long term: Risk on Mid term: Risk on Short term: Risk on The overall market structure remains risk on across all three time horizons. However, macro liquidity risks remain an important source of downside vulnerability. If negative macro news flow emerges, we could see sharp flushes lower despite the current risk-on structure. For this reason, we will continue to prioritize disciplined execution, confirmation at key levels, and aggressive profit-taking as positions move in our favor. Scenarios / Strategies Long Scenario 1 Demand 1 (730) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 727. Long Scenario 2 Demand 2 (718) This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close. Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 714. Long Scenario 3 Flip Level (738) This is the Flip Level for QQQ to watch. If price breaks above this level with a confirmed 4-hour candle close and subsequently retests the level, a long setup can be considered. Trigger: Price must break above the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bullish candle close. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 736. Short Scenario 1 Main Supply (741.5) This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity. Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle. An aggressive approach can also be used following a confirmed 15-minute bearish rejection candle. Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline. Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 744. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully. 6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours). This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.