USDJPY Near 160: Don't Predict InterventionUSD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYAPlusSentinelUSDJPY is approaching one of the most interesting areas on the FX board. The 160 region isn't simply another round number. The yen has recently been subject to coordinated intervention, markets are increasingly pricing another Bank of Japan rate increase, and softer U.S. economic data has changed expectations around the Federal Reserve. That creates an interesting lesson in market structure: What happens when a technical level also becomes a policy-sensitive level? I'm not trying to predict whether Japan intervenes. Instead, I'm watching the evidence around 160. For continuation higher: 📈 Price needs to ACCEPT above the area, not simply spike through it 🔁 A breakout should survive a retest 🕯️ Higher-timeframe closes matter more than a brief intraday wick 🌍 Yen weakness across other crosses would strengthen the case For rejection: 📉 Price trades through/toward 160 but cannot remain there ⚠️ Repeated attempts fail 🔻 Lower intraday structure begins forming afterward 💵 Falling U.S. yields and broader yen strength would add confirmation The important distinction is price discovery versus price excursion. Trading above a level for a few minutes isn't the same thing as the market deciding that higher prices represent fair value. I'll update the idea afterward whether continuation or rejection wins. The objective isn't to prove a prediction right. It's to define beforehand what evidence would make each scenario right — and what would prove it wrong. 🦊📊