黄安伟2026年8月17日2023年，位于南中国海的菲律宾军舰“马德雷山”号。上个月，一艘中国海警船开始在这艘军舰周围游弋，并与菲律宾军人发生对峙。 Aaron Favila/Associated PressIt was the worst clash in years between China and the Philippines at a long-simmering flashpoint in the South China Sea.这是多年来中国与菲律宾在南中国海一个长期紧张的争议地点爆发的最严重冲突。For decades, the Philippines has claimed a small reef in disputed waters and signaled its control of the territory by rotating troops to a World War II-era ship grounded there. An international tribunal ruling a decade ago supports the Philippines’ claim.数十年来，菲律宾一直主张对争议水域的一处小礁石拥有主权，并通过轮换驻守一艘坐滩于此的二战时期军舰来宣告其控制权。十年前，国际仲裁庭的一项裁决支持菲律宾的主张。But last month, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel began circling the ship, which is named the Sierra Madre. It was the latest in a long series of encounters between the two governments at the site, which is called the Second Thomas Shoal.但上个月，一艘中国海警船开始在这艘名为“马德雷山”号的军舰周围游弋。这是两国在第二托马斯浅滩（中方称仁爱礁）长期对峙中的最新一起事件。At one point, the Chinese Coast Guard used small boats to move in on Filipino service members and beat one of the men with a wooden baton, inflicting head injuries, according to Philippine and U.S. officials. China blamed the Philippines for provoking the clash.据菲律宾和美国官员介绍，冲突期间，中国海警使用小艇逼近菲律宾军人，并用木棍殴打其中一名菲方男子，致其头部受伤。中方则指责菲律宾挑起了这场冲突。The American ambassador expressed outrage and declared that the United States stood with the Philippines, the oldest U.S. treaty ally in Southeast Asia.美国大使对此予以强烈谴责，并宣称美国与菲律宾站在一起——菲律宾是美国在东南亚历史最悠久的条约盟友。Yet no one expects China to curb its expansionist activities in the region anytime soon. And there are growing doubts among Asian nations over what the United States would be willing to do to deter China, given the enormous distraction and resource drain of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.然而，没有人相信中国会短期内收敛在该地区的扩张活动。与此同时，由于美以联合对伊朗发动战争所导致的精力转移和资源消耗，对于美国究竟愿意采取多大力度来遏制中国，亚洲各国的疑虑与日俱增。The United States is running low on critical weapons, including air defense interceptors. Iran’s missile and drone attacks have forced U.S. troops to leave bases in the Middle East and destroyed the sites, an indication of what the Chinese military — which is much more powerful than Iran’s — could do in a conflict in Asia.美国重要武器的库存日益吃紧，包括防空拦截弹。伊朗的导弹和无人机攻击不仅迫使美军撤离中东的基地，还摧毁了相关军事设施。这也预示着，一旦亚洲发生冲突，实力远强于伊朗的中国军队可能造成何等局面。德黑兰的谢里夫理工大学在4月的空袭中损毁。对于美国究竟愿意采取多大力度来遏制中国，亚洲各国的疑虑与日俱增。And the Pentagon is moving an aircraft carrier from the Pacific to the Middle East to support operations against Iran. The U.S. Navy announced Wednesday that the ship, the U.S.S. George Washington, was heading out of Da Nang, Vietnam, after a port visit. Its departure for the Middle East leaves the Western Pacific without an American carrier.五角大楼正将一艘航空母舰从太平洋调往中东，以支援针对伊朗的军事行动。美国海军周三宣布，“乔治·华盛顿”号航母在结束对越南岘港的访问后启程。它的离开将使西太平洋地区减少一艘美国航母。In early July, China conducted a rare test firing of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that carried a dummy warhead, sending it into the Pacific Ocean from a nuclear-powered submarine. It is one of the most powerful elements in its arsenal.7月初，中国进行了一次罕见试射，从核动力潜艇向太平洋发射了一枚搭载模拟弹头的洲际弹道导弹。该导弹具备核打击能力，是中国武器库中最具威慑力的装备之一。While China tests its might, President Trump’s State Department is closing consulates in Japan and Indonesia, according to congressional officials briefed on the decision.在中国展示军事实力同时，据获悉相关决定的国会人士透露，特朗普总统领导下的国务院将关闭驻日本和印度尼西亚的一些领事馆。Mr. Trump’s second term “has been a colossal failure for U.S. interests in the Asia region,” Representative Gregory W. Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement.纽约州众议员、众议院外交事务委员会首席民主党议员格雷戈里·米克斯在一份声明中表示，特朗普的第二个任期“对美国在亚洲地区的利益而言是一场巨大的失败”。“This strategy, if you can call it one, is a gift to China that is undermining U.S. credibility and harming our national security,” he added.“这套策略——如果还算得上一个策略的话——无异于拱手送给中国一份大礼，它正在损害美国的公信力，并危害我们的国家安全，”他补充道。Trump appointees say the administration is not ceding ground in Asia. In a speech in Manila on Aug. 10, Elbridge Colby, the under secretary of defense for policy, said the Trump administration aimed to “maintain a posture of deterrence by denial along the first island chain” — meaning it was willing to commit military resources to dissuade China from invading or attacking islands that include Taiwan and ones in the Philippines and Japan.特朗普任命的官员则表示，政府并没有放弃在亚洲的利益。8月10日，负责政策事务的战争部副部长埃尔布里奇·科尔比在马尼拉的一次演讲中表示，特朗普政府的目标是“沿第一岛链维持‘以拒止实现威慑’的态势”，即政府愿意投入军事资源，让中国不敢入侵或攻击台湾以及菲律宾和日本所属岛屿。But Mr. Colby also said allies needed to spend more on defense and should try to integrate their militaries with that of the United States — and “not vainly and futilely seek to exclude or supplant us.”但科尔比同时表示，盟友需要增加国防支出，并应努力将其军队与美军整合——“而不是徒劳无益地试图把我们排除在外或取代我们”。Mr. Trump’s global trade war, whose targets have included Southeast Asian nations, has also revealed to allies and partners that the United States can be a commercial antagonist.特朗普发动的全球贸易战波及多个东南亚国家，这也让盟友和伙伴国意识到，美国完全可以成为一个商业层面的对手。The U.S. government has lacked an economic vision for Southeast Asia for years, as Democratic and Republican politicians retreated from a Pacific Rim trade pact that President Barack Obama promoted.多年来，美国政府一直缺乏针对东南亚的经济战略，民主共和两党的政治人物都退出了奥巴马总统曾推动的环太平洋贸易协定。在5月于北京举行的峰会上，特朗普表达了对中国国家主席习近平的赞赏。That has left countries in Southeast Asia wondering what happened to the U.S. drive to ensure that it remains a presence that balances against China.这使得东南亚各国不禁疑惑，美国确保自身在该地区存在、制衡中国的战略意愿究竟去了哪里？While Southeast Asian countries do not want to be trapped in a great-power clash between the United States and China, “they still want to feel the United States is a healthy counterweight to the P.R.C.,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, who served on the National Security Council during the Biden administration and is now a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. She was using the initials for the formal name for China, the People’s Republic of China.曾在拜登政府国家安全委员会任职、现为布鲁金斯学会访问研究员的米拉·拉普-霍珀说，尽管东南亚国家并不愿卷入中美之间的大国较量，但“它们仍希望感受到美国是制衡中华人民共和国的有效力量”。“So the perception that the United States is drifting as an alternative has also left a real impression on many of these partners,” she added.她补充说：“因此，其中一些伙伴国家深切地感受到，美国作为一个可替代选项正在逐渐淡出。”While Mr. Trump has talked about China as an economic rival, he also embraced the superpower after it successfully retaliated during his tariff war last year.虽然特朗普一直把中国称为经济竞争对手，但去年在关税战中中国成功采取反制措施之后，他又开始对这个超级大国表示友好。During a summit in Beijing in May, Mr. Trump expressed admiration for President Xi Jinping of China, and he is preparing to host Mr. Xi at a state visit in Washington in late September.在5月于北京举行的峰会上，特朗普表达了对中国国家主席习近平的赞赏。目前，他正准备于9月底在华盛顿接待习近平的国事访问。Mr. Trump’s move to build what he calls a “G2” — Group of Two — relationship with China has upended a growing bipartisan push in Washington in the last decade to confront China as a hostile rival.特朗普力图构建他所谓的“G2”（两国集团）的举动，颠覆了华盛顿过去十年间逐步形成的两党共识：将中国视为敌对竞争对手。As the Trump-Xi bonhomie grows, some Asian countries are feeling left out, yet are also opting to stay on China’s friendly side.随着特朗普与习近平之间的友好关系不断升温，一些亚洲国家感到被冷落，但同时也选择与中国保持友好关系。That is especially true when China remains the largest trading partner for many of the countries, and the United States is not working on presenting economic alternatives.尤其在中国仍是许多亚洲国家的最大贸易伙伴、美国又未能提供经济替代方案的情况下，情况更是如此。“We’re in a very difficult position because you know we want to have that maximal relationship with both sides,” said Richard Heydarian, a political scientist from the Philippines. “And then for countries like the Philippines, it’s even more impossible because the U.S. is a military ally. We need the U.S. when it comes to the China threat, but the U.S. is not giving us much love on anything beyond the military aspect.”菲律宾政治学家理查德·海达里安表示：“我们处在一个非常困难的境地，我们希望与双方都保持尽可能好的关系。而对菲律宾这样的国家来说，这更加不可能，因为美国是我们的军事盟友。在应对中国威胁时我们需要美国，但除了军事方面，美国在其他领域并未给予我们太多支持。”2022年11月，时任副总统哈里斯到访菲律宾巴拉望岛的一个渔村，并访问了菲律宾海岸警卫队在当地的一处设施。The Biden administration agreed to work with the Philippines on expanding a transportation network, called the Luzon Economic Corridor, to better integrate the country into global supply chains.拜登政府曾同意与菲律宾合作拓展一个名为“吕宋经济走廊”的交通网络，以期将菲律宾更好地融入全球供应链。The Trump administration is trying to bring the Philippines into its so-called Pax Silica initiative, with the notion of having the country work on semiconductor manufacturing and building artificial intelligence in a way that would benefit the United States.特朗普政府则正努力将菲律宾纳入其所谓的“硅和平”倡议，希望菲律宾参与半导体制造以及人工智能建设，并以此惠及美国。But those nascent steps pale next to U.S. efforts to keep up its military ties with the Philippines. The two countries have long had a close relationship, and they have tried to maintain military cooperation, though their ties have shifted at times.但与美国维持同菲律宾军事关系的努力相比，这些刚刚起步的举措显得微不足道。两国长期保持着密切关系，也一直努力维持军事合作，尽管这种关系时有起伏。The United State made the Philippines its first colonial foothold in Asia after taking it from Spain in the Spanish-American War. And the Philippines is the only Southeast Asian nation that has a formal alliance treaty with the United States — one that requires their militaries to help with the defense of the other nation.美国在美西战争后从西班牙手中夺取菲律宾，使其成为它在亚洲的第一个殖民地立足点。而菲律宾是东南亚唯一与美国签有正式同盟条约的国家——根据该条约，两国军队有义务在对方遭受攻击时提供协防。Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Manila last month during an annual forum of Southeast Asian nations that the U.S. military was determined to push back against China’s expansionist efforts.美国国务卿鲁比奥上个月在马尼拉参加东南亚国家的一个年度论坛期间告诉记者，美国军方决心遏制中国的扩张行动。“We’re never going to accept that international waterways are somehow under the control of other countries,” he said. “We’ll continue to sail through international waterways and freedom of navigation efforts of that kind, and we’ll continue to live up to our commitments — for example, with the Philippines and other countries — in terms of the treaty commitments that we have.”“我们永远不会接受国际水道被其他国家控制，”他说，“我们将继续在国际水道航行，并继续推进此类航行自由的努力。我们将继续履行我们对菲律宾和其他国家所作出的条约承诺。”During the Biden administration, the U.S. government took a hands-on approach to forging partnerships in Asia. It brought Japan into a security coalition with the Philippines. And President Joseph R. Biden Jr. got the Philippines to grant American troops expanded access to nine bases on islands near Taiwan.拜登政府执政期间，美国政府积极主动地在亚洲构筑伙伴关系。美国将日本纳入与菲律宾的安全合作体系。拜登还促使菲律宾扩大美军对靠近台湾的九处军事基地的使用权限。In November 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris flew to the island of Palawan, east of the South China Sea, and visited a Philippine Coast Guard site there to send a signal to China.2022年11月，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯飞往南海以东的巴拉望岛，并访问了菲律宾海岸警卫队在当地的一处设施，以此向中国发出信号。The military cooperation has continued under Mr. Trump, despite the resource drain of the Iran war. In May, the U.S. and Philippine militaries tested a Typhon missile launcher at one of the islands, a public show with a weapon that could be deployed against Chinese troops if they tried to invade Taiwan.尽管伊朗战争持续消耗美国的资源，美菲之间的军事合作在特朗普政府任内仍在持续推进。5月，两国军队在一座菲律宾岛屿上测试了“堤丰”导弹发射系统。这是一次公开展示，该武器可在台海冲突中用于对付中国军队。The Philippines invited Japan to take part in multination military exercises in June, the first time since World War II that Japanese troops had been active on Philippine soil.6月，菲律宾邀请日本参与多国联合军事演习，这是二战结束以来日本军队首次在菲律宾领土上开展军事行动。The move is both a continuation of the coalition overseen by the Biden administration and a hedge by the Philippines to broaden its partnerships beyond the United States.此举既是对拜登政府所主导的联盟建设的延续，也是菲律宾为拓宽美国之外合作伙伴关系而采取的一种平衡策略。Eric Schmitt自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。黄安伟(Edward Wong)为《纽约时报》报道全球事务、美国外交政策和国务院新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。