Bitcoin: Is the Next Cycle Already Taking Shape?Bitcoin / USDBINANCE:BTCUSDniclaxfxBTCUSD has entered an interesting phase. After the 2024–2025 rally and the subsequent correction, BTC has spent much of 2026 consolidating inside what could potentially become its next major accumulation zone. It is still too early to definitively call this the cycle bottom. But when I zoom out to the 2-week chart, the current structure bears a striking resemblance to the conditions that developed around the previous major cycle low. And one signal in particular has caught my attention: Bullish RSI divergence. Looking Back: The 2021–2023 Cycle Bitcoin's 2021 cycle top was not a single event. Price spent months distributing within the upper range before eventually breaking down and entering the 2022 bear market. What followed was a brutal repricing. But as Bitcoin approached the eventual 2022–2023 bottom, something important began happening beneath price. While BTC continued testing the lower portion of its range, momentum stopped deteriorating at the same rate. On the 2W chart, price effectively produced a lower low while RSI produced a higher low. That created a bullish divergence. The significance wasn't that divergence magically predicted the exact bottom. It showed something more useful: Selling pressure was losing momentum even while price remained weak. Eventually the divergence triggered, Bitcoin established its base, reclaimed trend, and what followed became the 2024–2025 rally. BTC moved from the ~$15,000–$20,000 region into six figures. Now Look at 2026 Fast-forward to the current market. Following the 2024–2025 rally, Bitcoin entered another major corrective phase. Price fell from the ~$100,000–$120,000 region and has spent months trading within roughly the $55,000–$84,000 area. At first glance, this could simply be consolidation within a broader downtrend. But underneath price, something familiar has appeared. Once again: Bitcoin has triggered a bullish divergence on the 2W RSI. And this is where things become interesting. The divergence is developing while BTC is attempting to establish a broader base, very similar to what occurred around the previous cycle bottom. The comparison is not perfect — markets never repeat themselves perfectly — but the sequence is difficult to ignore: Major rally → distribution/top → correction → consolidation → bullish momentum divergence → potential cycle bottom. We have seen this movie before. The question is whether the ending will rhyme. The 2W Moving Average Matters There is another component worth watching. The 10-period SMA on the 2W chart currently sits around the high-$60,000 region. Bitcoin is now trading back above that level near $72,000. That matters because momentum divergence alone isn't enough. I want to see price begin confirming what RSI is suggesting. A sustained reclaim of the 2W moving average, followed by the establishment of higher lows and eventually higher highs, would substantially strengthen the argument that the current consolidation is accumulation rather than merely a pause before another leg lower. In other words: Momentum may have fired the first signal. Price still needs to confirm it. What Would Confirm the Cycle Bottom? I am deliberately not labeling the current low as confirmed. Calling bottoms in hindsight is easy. Calling them while they are developing requires accepting uncertainty. For me, the bullish thesis becomes progressively stronger if Bitcoin can: Maintain the current 2W bullish divergence. Hold the broader ~$55K–$60K support region. Establish acceptance above the 2W 10-SMA. Begin producing higher lows within the current range. Eventually break and hold above the ~$80K–$85K region. That last step would be particularly important. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the current consolidation would begin changing the structure from potential accumulation into something much more convincing. Until then, this remains a developing thesis. What Invalidates the Idea? This is equally important. Bullish divergence is not immunity from lower prices. Bitcoin can generate positive momentum signals and still continue falling. A decisive breakdown beneath the current accumulation range — particularly if accompanied by renewed weakness in RSI — would force me to reassess the cycle-bottom thesis. The market does not owe us a repeat of 2022–2023. Historical similarity is evidence. It is not confirmation. What About 2027–2028? This is where the chart becomes speculative — but interesting. If the current structure ultimately proves to be another major cycle bottom, then the next logical question becomes: Where does the next expansion take Bitcoin? I have deliberately marked the projected 2027–2028 rally zone with a question mark. Because that's exactly what it is. A possibility. Not a prediction. The chart illustrates a potential expansion toward approximately $180,000–$260,000, but putting an exact target on a rally that has not even been confirmed would create false precision. The more important observation is the cycle structure itself. The previous sequence produced: 2021 Top → 2022/23 Bottom → 2024/25 Rally The developing sequence could potentially become: 2024/25 Top → 2026 Bottom → 2027/28 Rally That symmetry is what I am watching. Not because Bitcoin must obey a calendar. But because markets repeatedly transition between expansion, distribution, contraction and accumulation. If the current range represents accumulation, the eventual expansion could be substantial. Final Thoughts I don't believe there is enough evidence yet to confidently declare: "The Bitcoin bottom is in." But I also don't think the current structure should be dismissed. The same 2W bullish divergence trigger associated with the previous major cycle transition has surfaced again. Price is consolidating after a substantial correction. Momentum deterioration appears to be slowing. Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its medium-term trend. And the broader structure bears an interesting resemblance to the previous cycle. So for now, my position is simple: Too early to call the bottom. Too interesting to ignore. If price begins confirming what momentum is already suggesting, then the conversation may soon shift away from: "How much lower can Bitcoin go?" And toward: "Has the next Bitcoin cycle already begun?" Fingers crossed. I've got a good feeling about this one. K. This analysis represents my personal market view and is not financial advice. The projected 2027–2028 region shown on the chart is hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a guaranteed price target.