Elliott Wave SMC Analysis – Week 3 of AugustGoldOANDA:XAUUSDWavePoint_FX Positive Signals Are Increasingly Supporting the Bullish Scenario It is still relatively early to confirm that a new bullish trend has officially begun. However, the current signals are becoming increasingly constructive and are leaning toward a bullish scenario. Elliott Wave Structure One important point to pay attention to is the formation of the ABCDE structure, especially around the area where I labeled Wave D and Wave E. During this phase, price action became extremely compressed, making it difficult to accurately identify the starting point of Wave 1. For this reason, at the current stage, Elliott Wave labels should mainly be used to guide our expectations for the structure that may develop next. We should then use actual price action to confirm or adjust the wave count afterward. We should not try to determine too early whether the current rally belongs to Wave (1) or Wave (3). Assigning a wave label too early can create a directional bias regarding how deep the next correction should be. This is especially important because we still cannot confirm whether the larger corrective structure on D1 has completely ended. Liquidity Structure Is Showing Positive Signs Looking at the liquidity zones, we can see that the upside liquidity levels at 4204 and 4384 have already been taken one after another. Meanwhile, the downside liquidity at 3997 has still not been touched. This price behavior suggests that the market may be starting to form a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the possibility that a new bullish trend is gradually developing. In addition, the recent bullish move created a relatively wide FVG around 4170, suggesting that significant institutional order flow participated in this move. D1 Momentum D1 momentum is currently still moving lower. This supports the possibility that the corrective phase may continue during the early part of the week before bullish momentum begins to reverse higher. Plan for the New Week From a timing perspective, the weekly low often tends to form between Monday and Wednesday. Therefore, during the first half of the week, the key area to monitor will be the FVG around 4174. This is an unbalanced price area that has not yet been fully rebalanced, meaning it may continue to act as a magnet for price. If price retraces into this area and provides the appropriate confirmation, it could become a potential zone to look for Buy opportunities. Scenario if a New Bullish Trend Has Truly Begun One important characteristic to monitor will be the speed of the next bullish move. If the market has genuinely entered a new bullish trend, the next rally could be very strong and fast, with price potentially moving through the important liquidity levels at: 4596 4893 More importantly, if price can close strongly above 4893, we would have stronger confirmation that the larger D1 corrective structure may have ended. Trading Plan The main plan for the coming week is therefore to focus on the potential formation of the weekly low between Monday and Wednesday, with particular attention to the 4174 FVG. The key confirmation we want to see is D1 momentum reversing higher. Once this occurs together with appropriate price-action confirmation, we will prioritize looking for Buy opportunities in the direction of the developing bullish trend. The detailed trading plan for each individual day will be updated later once price action is officially confirmed on the lower timeframes.