USDJPY: still too close to Tokyo’s red zone to chase blindlyU.S. Dollar / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:USDJPYYenSenseiJapanese wisdom says: “Carelessness is the greatest enemy” — 油断大敵. I’m looking at the 1H USDJPY chart, and the pair is back at the same dangerous place: strong enough to test resistance, but still too close to Tokyo’s red zone to chase blindly. Price is trading near 159.5, right under the 159.60 resistance line. The recovery from 158.56 was clean, and MACD has turned positive, which tells me buyers are active again. But the pair is not above the ceiling yet. The bigger story is still the same: U.S. yields are trying to support the dollar, while Japanese yields are also rising. The 10-year JGB yield has reached a 30-year high near 2.93%, which keeps BoJ tightening expectations alive. That is why USDJPY is not just a dollar trade here — it is a yield-spread and intervention-risk trade. The invisible eyes of the MoF are still watching. The closer USDJPY moves toward 160.00, the more important intervention risk becomes. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance decides FX intervention, while the Bank of Japan executes it as agent. Buy a confirmed breakout: Entry: 159.60–159.70 after a clean hourly close above resistance Stop Loss: 159.25 Take Profit 1: 160.00 Take Profit 2: 160.30 Sell a failed breakout: Entry: 159.50–159.60 after rejection and return below 159.32 Stop Loss: 159.85 Take Profit 1: 158.85 Take Profit 2: 158.56 I would not buy directly into 159.60 without confirmation. And I would not short too early while price is still holding above the moving averages. My view: buyers have momentum, but the trade only becomes clean after 159.60 breaks. Until then, USDJPY is still negotiating with the ceiling. Breakout to 160.00 or another rejection? This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a personalized investment recommendation. The yen. The Bank of Japan. Carry trade. One market — analyzed to its core. — YenSensei