BTC - The Bear Market Has Changed Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTVIAQUANTWith this recent move for Bitcoin, the structure of this bear market has changed, and I want to explain exactly why. What Still Remains True Before diving into that, let me explain what still remains unresolved. The first thing is that Bitcoin has still not created a higher high. As far as market structure is concerned, Bitcoin remains in a bear market until the $83,000 high is broken. The next thing is that the four year cycle has not yet been broken. That theory suggests Bitcoin still has lower to go and will find its bottom in October 2026: One other thing worth noting is that this cycle has not seen the price capitulation that normal Bitcoin bear markets have historically produced. Bitcoin typically sees drawdowns around 77% to 84% at cycle bottoms, and this cycle has only experienced a drawdown of roughly 54% from the top. This is very likely because Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class. Unlike 2018 and 2022, which were defined by exchange failures, algorithmic stablecoin collapses, and cascading counterparty insolvencies like Terra, 3AC, Celsius, and FTX, this cycle has seen none of those system-defining failures. Instead, the selling pressure has come almost entirely through institutional channels, ETF redemptions, portfolio rebalancing, and corporate treasury adjustments rather than panic-driven retail liquidation or exchange collapse. Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow large holders to exit through in-kind redemptions and portfolio rebalancing rather than forced market dumping, which mutes the depth of the crash even while extending its duration. This is being described by several institutional research desks as Bitcoin's first true institutional bear market, and it appears to be structurally milder as a direct result. Why the Bottom Could Already Be In Now that I have gone through some of the reasons Bitcoin may not have completed its bear market, let me go through some of the reasons the bottom could already be in. There is plenty of fundamental and on-chain data to support this, but in this specific idea I am only going to touch on the technical aspects. The first thing to note is Bitcoin has bottomed within its golden zone exactly as predicted: This has also created a bullish divergence on the weekly, consistent with most prior BTC bear market bottoms, as well as for TOTAL: June marked the pivot point for Bitcoin's trend: Bitcoin's two week structure and two week bullish divergence remain intact: Bitcoin's monthly structure has remained intact: BTC also switched trend momentum on the daily from oversold conditions, right after the lunar cycle buy signal flashed: Momentum Shift This is the main focus of this post, the shift in trend momentum on the daily timeframe. For context, refer to this idea that helped mark the May 2026 top: If you look at the RSI trendline I outlined in that idea, it had been forming since the election boom in November 2024. Since that time, trend momentum continued to diminish, printing lower highs at that trendline even as price climbed higher (red arrows). However, this is the first time since November 2024 that trend strength has decisively climbed above that RSI trendline. This is a major shift in this bear market's structure, showing market participants fighting against the prevailing bear trend and beginning to demonstrate genuine new buying strength within the crypto markets. Yesterday's Historic Short Squeeze Adding further weight to this shift, yesterday, August 19, 2026, produced one of the largest short squeezes in crypto history. Bitcoin surged nearly 8% in a matter of hours, triggering the biggest wave of short liquidations in records dating back to 2021. Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated in approximately one hour alone, with total liquidations across the crypto market reaching nearly $3 billion, the vast majority coming from short positions. The catalyst was reportedly tied to the US Treasury doubling its long-dated bond buybacks alongside renewed momentum around the Clarity Act. What to Watch Next Now that this structure has been established, it will be key to watch how trend momentum interacts with this RSI trendline going forward. Once a pullback does occur, watch for the RSI to fall back toward this daily trendline. Once it reaches that level, it will be critical to see whether market participants begin buying again and whether strength starts bouncing from that trendline. If and when that occurs, it could mark the true start of the next bull market.