USDJPY: the dollar already lost the first roundU.S. Dollar / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:USDJPYYenSenseiUSDJPY: before Japan trade balance, the dollar already lost the first round Japanese wisdom says: “Knock on a stone bridge before crossing” — 石橋を叩いて渡る. I’m looking at the 1H USDJPY chart after the U.S. session events, and the first thing I see is simple: buyers failed to hold the upper range. Earlier, USDJPY was trading near the 159.50–159.73 zone. That area was the ceiling before the FOMC Minutes. Now the pair has dropped toward 158.15–158.20, breaking below the short-term moving averages and turning the structure defensive. What already happened today: UK CPI came in at 2.9%, matching expectations. Eurozone CPI also matched expectations at 2.9%, with core CPI at 2.5%. The German 10-year Bund auction yield rose to 3.260% from 3.130%. The U.S. 20-year bond auction yield rose to 5.204% from 5.163%. FOMC Minutes showed more concern about inflation and some support for higher rates, but USDJPY still failed to hold the recovery. That matters. If hawkish Fed language cannot keep USDJPY above 159.00, the chart is telling me that buyers are not fully in control. Now the next test comes from Japan at 23:50 UTC: Trade Balance and Exports. The forecast is for Japan’s trade deficit to widen to around -680.0B from -409.9B. Normally, a wider deficit is not yen-positive. But I would not trade this mechanically. If exports are strong and USDJPY still cannot rebound, the market may read it as another reason to respect the yen. Technically, the pair is now below EMA 9, EMA 20 and SMA 50. MACD is negative, and the drop from 159.70 looks like a clean rejection, not just noise. Sell a failed recovery: Entry: 158.45–158.60 after rejection Stop Loss: 158.90 Take Profit 1: 158.00 This setup only works if USDJPY fails to reclaim 158.60 and stays below the short-term moving averages. Selling directly into 158.15 is late, because price is already near local support. Invalidation: a clean hourly close back above 158.90. Then USDJPY can attempt a recovery toward 159.30, but the 159.50–160.00 zone remains intervention-risk territory. My view: FOMC Minutes did not rescue the dollar-yen structure. Now Japan’s trade data will show whether the yen has follow-through, or whether this was only a post-Fed shakeout. Yen follow-through or dollar recovery? This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a personalized investment recommendation. The yen. The Bank of Japan. Carry trade. One market — analyzed to its core. — YenSensei