Gold's Uncomfortable Second-Tranche Entry 40/50 EMA Crossover Gold FuturesCOMEX:GC1!jonlorquetIf you were waiting for the second-inning entry to deploy another tranche of gold exposure, this is an uncomfortable setup. Whenever a chart has experienced this much carnage since January, you have to ask how many trapped longs remain and where they may become sellers. So far we have only seen price acceptance. The inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that initiated this rally was met with considerable skepticism. But in the background, coordinated U.S.-Japan yen intervention was being interpreted as a gesture in the direction of yield-curve control. That gave the reversal a credible macro catalyst. If you already had exposure, you were happy, but probably still nervous. Gold overcame its initial Fibonacci retracement and established price acceptance around $4,400. After consolidating sideways, it moved sharply higher again following the Treasury’s decision to expand long-end buybacks in an effort to support market liquidity, limit bond volatility, and influence the shape of the curve. If you were waiting for a perfect 0.50 retracement before adding exposure, this is not what you wanted to see. Today, we get the 40/50-day EMA crossover. Sometimes that is the only permission the market provides to deploy a second tranche. Gold is becoming overbought, but we have watched it ignore overbought conditions too many times for that to be a sufficient signal by itself. Major overhead resistance begins near $4,800, representing the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear market. That level also aligns closely with the 0.786 level of the current bullish impulse. The full measured-move objective sits near $4,913. Together, these levels define a $4,800–$4,913 resistance zone where profit-taking and a period of consolidation would be reasonable to expect. Trading is hard. If you have conviction over a long-term time horizon, you may have to accept the 40/50-day EMA crossover as the only confirmation and entry opportunity the market provides. If you are a conservative trader who refuses to chase, then you may wait for a pullback to the golden pocket that may or may not come. This setup is exciting, but it offers no easy decisions. Best of luck out there.