$MPLXMPLX LPBATS:MPLXDillyDallyGally4. Scenario framework Probability-weighted fair value is $67.25 versus spot $56.38 — P/FV 0.84, expected price return +19%, before the ~7.6% running distribution yield. ScenarioProbFV/shvs SpotKey assumptionBear20%$45.00−20%Permian slowdown + weak NGLs stall the ramp; distribution growth halts at $4.31; units reprice to ~9.5% yield with leverage stuck at ~3.8xBase50%$66.00+17%2026 projects land; guided 12.5% raises delivered in Oct-26 and Oct-27, ~5.5% thereafter; Ke 10.75% (CAPM + 125bp wrapper discount persists in part)Bull25%$82.00+45%2028 EBITDA ~$8.4B; gas/LNG/power demand keeps the build full; market pays ~6.5% yield on the raised distributionBlue-sky5%$95.00+69%MPC buy-in or conversion collapses the wrapper discount to CAPM, and/or a gas demand supercycle extends double-digit distribution growth past 2027