CADJPY | Is Another Leg Lower Coming?CAD/JPYOANDA:CADJPYEdgeTradingJourneyCADJPY continues to respect its medium-term bearish structure after approaching the weekly 50% engulfing level. From a technical perspective, price remains below the previous lower highs, confirming that sellers still control the market. The daily supply area between 114.00–114.80 is the primary point of interest. A retracement into this zone followed by lower timeframe confirmation would provide the highest-probability short setup. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data also supports this view. Large speculators remain heavily short CAD, while the Japanese Yen continues to maintain a relatively stronger positioning. This keeps the broader macro bias in favor of JPY strength versus CAD. Seasonality further reinforces the bearish outlook. Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for the Canadian Dollar, but it has also tended to be a weaker period for the Japanese Yen. Despite this mixed seasonal backdrop, the current technical structure and institutional positioning outweigh seasonality, making price action the primary driver. Retail sentiment adds another confluence: around 74% of traders are currently long CADJPY. From a contrarian perspective, this overcrowded long positioning increases the probability of further downside if the weekly supply rejection holds. Trading Plan Primary Bias: Bearish Wait for price to retrace into the 50% of the daily supply zone at 114.40. Look for lower timeframe confirmation (market structure shift, liquidity sweep, or bearish displacement). Initial targets: 113.50, followed by 112.70, where the next major daily demand sits.