BTC ~6:1 RR Trade IdeaBitcoin FuturesCME_DL:BTC1!doublechonkWe've climbed up into the CME gap as expected. Suspecting the rally is a bull trap into this $67-70k range. I don't typically use trend lines, but sometimes they're useful for visualizing ranges of different types. This one starts at the high around $97k and slopes down — we think we test that trendline around the same $67-70k area, which lines up with the CME gap for confluence. — THE BIGGER PICTURE — This move up buys time for a final low in Q4 this year. It also gives price time to build more liquidity for the next leg down. We'll watch price around this area but are considering a long IF the setup develops. — THE SETUP WE'RE WATCHING — If we see price come back around $60,500 with the stop under the daily swing low, that would offer roughly a 5:1 R:R setup based on the technicals we've outlined — a reasonable try inside the larger bearish thesis. These are levels we're watching — not predictions. React to the move, don't predict it. — MACRO PULSE — Big week ahead. Wednesday July 8: FOMC minutes drop from Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Simple takeaway from the last meeting: rate hike expected by year end. The real story is what's underneath. 📊 WHERE THE MONEY IS POSITIONED • BTC options open interest now EXCEEDS futures OI — $65B vs $60B • BlackRock's IBIT alone = 52% of total options OI (ATH market share) • Institutional money expressing views through options, not perps • Perp funding on Hyperliquid, Aster, Deribit sitting flat-to-neutral — no euphoria, no capitulation • Reads: the market is still hunting a decision. Neither side has paid enough to reset the tape. 🛢️ OIL — SOMETHING SMELLS OFF • Brent crashed from $90+ to the low $70s in weeks • Reason cited: Hormuz de-escalation, US-Iran indirect talks • But Aramco's CEO literally said the market won't normalize until 2027 if Hormuz stays disrupted • Suspicious timing: Fed goes hawkish June 17, and three weeks later energy conveniently craters • Whether it's real de-escalation or a temporary pressure valve, the underlying supply picture hasn't changed 📉 CPI — THE NUMBER EVERYONE KNOWS IS UNDERSTATED • Official May reading: 4.2% YoY (highest since April 2023) • Look at food, energy, rent, insurance vs 5 years ago — cumulative closer to 40-50% • Alternative measures put real inflation closer to 8-10% • The Fed is officially chasing 2%. They're actually chasing double their own reported number. • Rate hikes make sense in that context even with a "cooling" official print 💵 M2 MONEY SUPPLY — ALL-TIME HIGH • M2 hit $23.05 TRILLION in May — record • Grew by $1 TRILLION in the 7 months from July 2025 to Feb 2026 • YoY growth accelerating: 5.6% in May, up from 4.7% in April • Nearly 30% of all M2 ever created came after Jan 2020 • The Fed talks hawkish. The money supply says otherwise. Long-term bullish for hard assets. 💲 DXY — THE HEADWIND MOST PEOPLE ARE IGNORING • Sitting at ~101, broke above 100 in June for the first time since May 2025 • Fed staying hawkish while ECB and BOJ stay dovish = capital flows into USD • Consensus positioning: firm-to-stronger through Q3 • Higher DXY = direct pressure on risk assets, including BTC • This is a headwind that gets ignored until it matters — THE SETUP — Our thesis unchanged: bull trap into $67-70k, then completion of the MMXM sell model. — STANCE — Still bearish. Watching the CME gap zone. Follow our Telegram for ongoing market commentary and product updates. Where you positioned? 👇 — Not financial advice. Educational commentary only. Trading derivatives carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.