ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Mon (Jul 6)E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!MyAlgoIndexBias: Moderately bullish into Monday's session, with fade risk at the overhead resistance stack. ES returns from the long weekend near 7,560, up about 0.43 percent from Thursday's 7,528.25 settle, after an overnight range of 7,538.25 to 7,574.25. Tech futures lead the bounce as the chip group recovers from Thursday's sharp drawdown, while soft payrolls and a cooler monthly inflation print keep the easing narrative alive. Dealer positioning is net long gamma, which favors range-dampening between the big cash strikes, and downside hedge demand remains elevated beneath the bullish surface. The 10:00 AM ET services survey, especially its prices-paid component, is the decision point of the morning. Price is testing the cash 7,500 equivalent at the open, acceptance above it keeps the grind toward 7,588 and 7,607 alive, rejection sends price back to the prior-close shelf. Resistance: 7,565 - 7,574 (overnight high zone, first supply) 7,577 (dealer-positioning resistance, cash 7,520 equivalent) 7,588 (first pivot resistance, key morning decision level) 7,607 (dealer-positioning resistance, cash 7,550 equivalent) 7,648 - 7,657 (one-month high plus second pivot resistance) 7,693.75 (52-week high) Support: 7,550 - 7,557 (cash 7,500 equivalent, pivotal zone) 7,538.25 (overnight low) 7,528 - 7,534 (Thursday settle plus daily pivot, strongest shelf) 7,505 - 7,513 (one-standard-deviation support shelf) 7,474 (first pivot support) 7,457 (dealer-positioning support, cash 7,400 equivalent) Primary Setup: Long a pullback into the 7,530 - 7,540 shelf where the prior settle, daily pivot, and overnight low stack together. Stop 7,507, below the one-standard-deviation support and the round 7,500 handle. Targets: 7,574 (overnight high), then 7,588 (pivot resistance), then 7,607 (cash 7,550 equivalent). Roughly 1:1.4, 1:1.9, and 1:2.6 risk-to-reward from a blended 7,535 entry. Invalidation: a 15-minute close below 7,507 or immediate acceptance below 7,528 on a hot 10:00 AM prices-paid print. No entries before 9:45 AM ET, no entries after 4:00 PM ET, and any Middle East escalation headline suspends the setup.