Microsoft Is -30% Over 11 Months. What Can Its Chart Show Us?Microsoft CorporationBATS:MSFTmoomooMicrosoft has been an outlier among the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants in that it hasn't hit an all-time high in nearly a year -- moving up and down since peaking last July, but ultimately shedding some 30% since then. Let's check out its chart and fundamentals. Microsoft's Fundamental Analysis MSFT peaked last July 31 at $555.45, slid more than 35% to a $356.28 low in March and has bounced up and down ever since, trading midday Monday at $384.07. Market watchers expect the company to report fiscal Q4 results in late July, with the Street currently looking for $4.24 in adjusted earnings per share on $87.66 billion of revenue. That would represent a 16.2% gain from the $3.65 in adjusted EPS that Microsoft reported in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the revenue number would reflect roughly 14.7% in year-over-year growth from the $76.4 billion of sales that MSFT saw in Q4 2025. (Analysts expect sales to have risen 17% for fiscal 2026 as a whole.) That all sounds pretty good, but not everyone is excited. In fact, 20 of the 31 sell-side analysts that I know of who cover Microsoft have cut their earnings estimates since the current quarter began, while only eight have revised those numbers higher. (Three analysts have so far sat on their hands.) But unlike some of Microsoft's hyperscaler competitors, the company is, to this point, still generating positive free cash flow. So, will sub-15% sales growth be enough to fire the stock price back up? Let's go to MSFT's chart for some clues. Microsoft's Technical Analysis Here's the stock's daily chart, going back roughly a year and running through Wednesday afternoon (July 1): This chart shows a possible path for the stock to break out, but there could also be some potholes in the road ahead. Readers will first see that Microsoft came out of a double-top pattern of bearish reversal in November. Marked with pink shading at the chart's left, this pattern worked like a charm and MSFT fell. But now, Microsoft appears to have completed a double-bottom pattern of bullish reversal and is trying to head back north. Marked in green at the chart's right, this pattern has an apparent upside pivot at $458, the apex of the central peak taken from the big "W" formation. (Again, MSFT was trading at $384.07 at midday Monday.) However, to get to this pattern's apex, Microsoft's shares will have to first get definitively past the stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked by a green line at $387.10 above). That's where the battle of the swing traders will likely happen. If Microsoft can take and hold that line, it will be on to the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line at $408.30 above). After that, the stock's next challenge will be to retake its 200-day SMA (the red line at $446.10 above). That's where professional money managers will likely start making decisions regarding allocations. That's a lot of wood for Microsoft to cut -- and that all would happen below the above pivot point. Moving on to the other technical indicators above, Microsoft's Relative Strength Index (the gray line marked "RSI" at the chart's top) is improving and has now reached a neutral level. Similarly, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with blue bars, a black line and a gold line at the chart's bottom) is starting to look better even though all three components remain negative. The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is making an attempt to reach the zero-bound, which would be a positive signal if it happens. At the same time, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is trying to overtake the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That would be a bullish signal if it happens, although it would be somewhat muted if both lines remain below zero (as they are now). (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle was long MSFT at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. 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