Is Gold Bullish Again? EMA-200 Holds the KeyGoldOANDA:XAUUSDJustTechnicalsTaking lead from our previous analysis, Gold has bounced after forming a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. After marking a major high above 5600, Gold corrected toward the 4027 region, which is approximately a 28% correction from the top. This correction has been significant, but the key question now is whether the bearish phase is complete or whether this is only a relief rally. Trend Hierarchy Secular Trend: Bullish Intermediate Trend: Bearish Correction Short-Term Trend: Relief Bounce / Unconfirmed Reversal Bullish Side The bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart is the strongest argument in favor of buyers. Price made a lower low, while RSI formed a higher low. This shows that bearish momentum weakened, and the recent bounce confirms that the market has reacted to that divergence. Bearish Side The bearish structure is not fully invalidated yet. Gold is still trading below key daily EMAs, especially the EMA-200, which currently sits near 4338. Time analysis also suggests that the bearish correction may still need more time before a durable bottom is confirmed. For now, we assign only 25% probability that a new bull trend has already started from here. The higher-probability view remains that this bounce may still be a relief rally inside the broader corrective phase. Key Test Ahead The major test for bulls is the daily EMA-200 near 4338. A strong daily close above EMA-200 would be the first serious sign that bulls are regaining control. Without that confirmation, the bounce should be treated carefully. Outlook Gold is showing early signs of bottoming, but confirmation is still missing. The bullish divergence is important, but price must now prove itself through structure, EMA reclaim, and sustained follow-through. Stance ➡️ Gold Corrected Approximately 28% From The Top ➡️ Daily Bullish RSI Divergence Formed ➡️ Bounce Has Started From Divergence ➡️ EMA-200 Near 4338 Is The Key Test ➡️ Bull Case Probability: Around 25% ➡️ Relief Rally Probability: Around 75% ➡️ Reversal Not Confirmed Until EMA-200 Is Reclaimed Price tells the story. For short updates: X @JustTechnicals_