Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnAlex Carchidi, The Motley FoolSun, July 5, 2026 at 9:22 PM GMT+2 4 min readEthereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has shed about 22% in the last 30 days, with a spate of factors driving investors away during the depths of the crypto bear market.Many holders are eagerly awaiting the next few months as a stretch where a bounce is likely. Unfortunately, their hopes are probably going to be dashed. Here's why.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Image source: Getty Images.The summer doesn't usually go well for holdersSeasonality, the current macro backdrop, the crypto bear market, and Ethereum's own problems are all stacked against a fast rebound right now. That doesn't stop the coin's longtime holders from wishing for a return of the chain's most iconic summers, like the "DeFi Summer" of 2020, which saw an explosion of new decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and the rise of Ethereum as the crypto sector's home for DeFi.But even that period is subject to some serious rose-tinting in investors' memories. From 2016 through 2025, July, August, and September each closed positive for Ethereum only four times out of 10. July saw a median decline of 4.2%, compared to median declines of 1.9% in August and 12.7% in September.So history says the summer will, all else being equal, probably see Ether's price go down more. This seasonality doesn't guarantee that the next few months will bring more pain, as it's just a backward-looking measure. Still, when paired with the other bearish factors in play, the near term doesn't look good.There's more than one reason why sentiment about this asset is poor right nowThe Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June meeting, and rate hikes may be on the way later in the year, given that inflation remains well above its target. That ensures that buying Treasury bonds, with a reliable yield, will be attractive relative to non-yielding, drawdown-prone assets, like Ethereum. Crypto typically struggles to grow significantly during similar periods.The chain's cybersecurity issues are probably even more immediately problematic. Ethereum's DeFi segment lost more than $840 million in value across 50-plus exploits of its ecosystem projects in just the last five months. The Kelp DAO breach alone drained close to $293 million in April and subsequently triggered around $13 billion in DeFi outflows from investors fleeing to safety. The Ethereum Foundation's new Clear Signing standard, launched in May, addresses a different class of user-side exploit and won't have a meaningful effect on hacks like with Kelp DAO.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info