FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last weekfollowing the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to triggera slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for aJuly hike are now standing at just 24%, while the probabilities for a move inSeptember dropped to 55%. As mentioned previously, given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPIwill likely be more important. For now, the US dollar might remain rangebound untilwe get to the main event. This week, we don’t have much on the agenda. We have Fed’s Waller speakingtoday, but unless he explicitly endorses rate hikes, the price action shouldremain rangebound. The other potential catalyst could be the FOMC meetingminutes on Wednesday. This is almost never a market moving report but given the limited forwardguidance from Fed Chair Warsh, traders will want to see if there’s any furthersignal in the minutes on the next policy move. INR:On the INR side, theRupee decoupled from oil prices as the market focus shifted to the risk of Fedrate hikes after the last FOMC decision. The Rupee willlikely need a downside surprise in the US CPI next week to recover the losses.An upside surprise could take the currency to a new record low versus the USdollar. In the bigpicture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong technicallevels to keep pushing the USD/INR pair into new highs. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the dailychart, we can see that USDINR broke above the downward trendline last week and extended the rally asmore buyers piled in on the breakout. The natural target should be the swinghigh around the 96.10 level. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe,so we need to zoom in to see some more details. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hourchart, we can see the price broke through a strong resistance zone around the95.10 level where we had also the trendline for confluence. We have now anupward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we canexpect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below the oldresistance now turned support, to position for a rally into new record highs.The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back belowthe 95.10 support to pile back in and target a drop into new lows.USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hourchart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better riskto reward setup around the trendline and the 95.10 support, while the sellerswill have to either wait for the price to reach the 96.10 resistance or breakbelow the support. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the US ISMServices PMI. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, weget the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.