Yen back under pressure despite increased intervention riskDollar recoups post-NFP losses, eyes ISM services PMI and Fed minutesOil prices slip after OPEC+ raises output and Hormuz tap stays openEquities steady ahead of Q2 earnings, Samsung preliminary resultsYen Flirts With Danger AgainThe Japanese yen is back in the spotlight at the start of the week as it gets close to erasing last week’s surprise rally, pushing back into the 162 per dollar territory. The US dollar is broadly firmer, as the post-NFP selloff takes a breather, with traders awaiting fresh cues from this week’s data and Fed meeting minutes before further scaling back their rate hike bets.It seems that the change in Japanese authorities’ tactic not to warn markets before intervening in the exchange rate hasn’t scared off traders shorting the yen. Last week’s drop may or may not have been intervention-driven, while speculation that the government might have used Friday’s thin liquidity conditions when US markets were closed for the July 4 bank holiday to further bolster the yen didn’t materialize.Growing evidence of an inflationary buildup in Japan has yet to put a floor under the yen’s slide, as the Bank of Japan doesn’t seem to have a problem being behind the curve, while it remains non-fussed about the yen’s weakening.Fed and US Data to Stay in Driver’s SeatBut with the 163-yen level coming within increasing reach, the Japanese government’s resolve will be put to the test when the ISM services PMI is released later today at 14:00 GMT. Any negative surprises, particularly in the prices index, would probably set the dollar back, as investors would further price out the likelihood of a 25-bps rate hike before the year-end.However, an upbeat PMI could risk tipping the yen over the 163 level, triggering an intervention.Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s June meeting will also be crucial as policymakers’ views will be carefully scrutinized amid the lack of forward guidance since Kevin Warsh took over. It remains to be seen whether Governor Waller, who’s due to speak later today, will comment on monetary policy.Gold will also be keeping a close watch on Fed expectations, as its three-day rebound has stalled today. After briefly brushing $4,200 earlier in the session, gold has pulled back to around $4,150 as the dollar extends its recovery.Oil Lower but May Be Bottoming OutSteady oil prices are contributing to the calm start to the new trading week, as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to normalize. Although US-Iran talks have taken a pause in the past few days while Iranians mourned their late leader, Ali Khamenei, at his funeral over the weekend, more and more vessels are making their way along the vital oil shipping lane, with 160 vessels reportedly transiting the strait last week.Moreover, the OPEC+ alliance decided to raise output again at their scheduled meeting on Sunday, increasing it by another 188,000 barrels per day from August.Oil futures are trading lower on Monday, with WTI down almost 1% to $68.16. Nevertheless, despite the bearish bias for oil, the downtrend appears to be bottoming out around $68, as investors are likely waiting for fresh signals that the US-Iran negotiations are making progress and the supply disruptions are easing.The decision by OPEC and non-OPEC countries is once again a symbolic one as it will take some time for actual output to match the set quotas.A Cautiously Positive Mood in EquitiesIn stock markets, it’s been a mixed day in Asia where jitters about the semiconductor sector persist. But European markets are mostly positive, and Wall Street is also expected to open higher when traders return from the long holiday weekend.However, whilst there’s still a clear bullish tendency, caution will likely prevail ahead of the Q2 earnings season, which kicks off at the end of the week before picking up pace with the major banks the following week.All eyes will be on whether all the AI capex by the big hyperscalers is producing significantly higher revenue growth and whether chipmakers and other AI enablers continue to enjoy rising demand.Samsung will offer traders a preview of what to expect when it reports preliminary earnings on Tuesday. With the bar set very high, the slightest disappointment could spark another massive selloff in chip stocks.