MSFT: -30% With Record Earnings. Here's the Line in the Sand.Microsoft CorporationBATS:MSFTImmaculateTonyWhat I'm seeing MSFT peaked ~$555 in late 2025 and flushed to $349 on June 25 worst month for the name since 2000. Current bounce to ~$390 sits inside a confirmed Weinstein Stage 4 downtrend on the weekly: - Price well below the 30-week SMA - Descending upper fractal trendline intact since the highs -Lower fractal broken breakdown confirmed - ATR-multiple sell signal fired near the Nov 2025 peak; no buy signal since - Anchored VWAP (from highest-volume node at the top) sits ~$403 price below it means the average buyer from the peak is underwater. That's overhead supply on every rally. Why it matters The fundamentals did NOT cause this. Revenue +18% YoY, EPS beating every quarter, $25.6B quarterly FCF. The entire drawdown was multiple compression P/E de-rated from ~38x to ~23x on AI capex ROI fear. That's a narrative repricing, not an earnings problem. Which means the chart, not the income statement, tells you when it's over. The levels: $356 — line in the sand (Fib 100%). Held the June 25 flush. Lose it convincingly → next cluster $344–320 $398–403 — first real test. Weekly SMA20 + anchored VWAP confluence $424–430 — prior consolidation / gap resistance above What I expect Default assumption in Stage 4: rallies get sold. The $349→$390 bounce has proven nothing yet. Two conditions, no predictions: Weekly reclaim + hold above $403 = first real evidence the repricing is done. Until then, this is a bounce inside a downtrend. Convincing loss of $356 = repricing isn't finished. Retest is not off the table. Strong business earns the watchlist. Patience is a position. Not financial advice educational breakdown of my process.