Gold extends the pullback after the mixed NFP, but the focus remains on the CPI report

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FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWGold extended the pullbackin the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’tbad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rateexpectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 24%, whilethe probabilities for a move in September dropped to 55%. As mentioned previously, giventhe Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important. Fornow, Gold will likely remain rangebound at a higher level until we get to the mainevent. This week, we don’t have much on the agenda. We have Fed’s Waller speakingtoday, but unless he explicitly endorses rate hikes, the price action should remainrangebound. The other potential catalyst could be the FOMC meeting minutes onWednesday. This is almost never a market moving report, but given the limited forwardguidance from Fed Chair Warsh, traders will want to see if there’s any furthersignal in the minutes on the next policy move. GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold extended the pullback in the final part of last week followingthe mixed US NFP report. We are now approaching the first major downwardtrendline. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a definedrisk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the otherhand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish betsinto the next trendline around the 4,500 level. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that the break above the swing high around the 4,095 level triggered by theNFP report opened the door for a move into the major downward trendline. If theprice pulls back to retest the 4,095 level, we can expect the buyers to step inthere with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs. Thesellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the4,095 level to pile back in and target new lows.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave a minor support around the 4,142 level. The buyers will likely step inaround these levels with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into newhighs. The sellers, on the other hand, will wait for a break lower to extendthe pullback into the 4,095 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the US ISMServices PMI. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, weget the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.