BITCOIN, end of the bear market in 100 daysBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSwissquoteBitcoin has continued to evolve within its bearish cycle in place since Monday, October 6 last year, and the month of June ended with a particularly disappointing performance. According to market cycle analysis, nearly three-quarters of this corrective phase have now been completed, and an opportunity window could open in the fall (between late August and late October next) to re-enter Bitcoin at lower prices. The four-year cycle remains the main technical reference and the dominant technical factor for the underlying trend of Bitcoin’s price. The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, the rise of institutional adoption, the development of companies holding Bitcoin in their treasuries, as well as expected regulatory progress with the Clarity Act, could have suggested that the traditional four-year cycle was a thing of the past. Yet this model, historically driven by the halving occurring every four years, continues to guide market evolution. It is based on a relatively stable alternation: about three years of growth followed by one year of bear market. The year 2026 once again confirms the relevance of this cyclical interpretation. Bitcoin’s current evolution indeed mirrors the timeline observed during previous bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022, each occurring four years after a major corrective phase. The Bitcoin four-year cycle is structured around the quadrennial halving, with a market bottom 550 days before the halving and a bull market peak 550 days after the halving. Some see this as proof that institutionalization has ultimately not changed Bitcoin’s behavior. However, this conclusion appears premature. The gradual integration of BTC into the financial system, particularly in the United States, continues, and the potential adoption of the Clarity Act would represent another step in this long-term dynamic. The fact that the four-year cycle continues to hold is even reassuring for investors. If this historical pattern continues, the current bearish phase could end by the end of 2026, paving the way for a new bullish cycle potentially leading Bitcoin to new all-time highs. On average, a cyclical Bitcoin bear market lasts about 365 days. At this stage, nearly 270 days have already passed since the beginning of this phase, suggesting a possible end of the corrective move around September and within a price range between 45,000 USD and 50,000 USD. The chart below illustrates the average 365-day duration of Bitcoin bear markets. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.