They’re neighbours, rivals and now knockout opponents, and Portugal vs Spain is going to settle a quarter-final place in easily the standout tie of the World Cup 2026 last 16. The winner will be heading to the last eight to face either USA or Belgium and the loser flies home.The biggest stories coming into this one are Cristiano Ronaldo chasing one last shot at the World Cup trophy (at the age of 41) and Spain’s 18-year-old talisman Lamine Yamal looking to take the mantle of the best European footballer of his generation.These two sides also have recent history, as Portugal beat Spain on penalties in the 2025 Nations League final after a 2-2 draw, and their 2018 group-stage 3-3 remains one of the great World Cup games in recent history. The issue with this tie is that the straight match result doesn’t give you much to work with.Spain are 9/10 to win in 90 minutes on Paddy Power, which is skinny for a knockout where a level score just tips the tie into extra time and penalties. Portugal at 3/1 is a punt on a side that’ll spend most of the night chasing the ball, and the draw at 5/2 only pays if you correctly call a stalemate that then gets decided another way in either extra time or penalties.The value isn’t in who wins, it’s all about how the game likely plays out: Spain camped in Portugal’s half, Yamal peppering the goal, and Portugal fouling to have to survive.So, I’ve built a three-leg Paddy Power bet builder that lands at around 12/1 and leans into exactly that: Lamine Yamal to have 2+ shots on target, over 2.5 goals, and Nuno Mendes to be shown a card.Here’s why each leg fits in with the game I’m expecting to see unfold, where the risk sits, and how to actually place the bet.Top choice bet builderBet on Lamine Yamal to have 2+ shots on target – 6/5 with Paddy PowerBet Over 2.5 goals – 8/11 with Paddy PowerBet on Nuno Mendes to be shown a card – 5/2 with Paddy PowerPortugal vs Spain match detailsDate: Monday, 6 July 2026Kick-off: 8pm BSTVenue: AT&T Stadium (Dallas Stadium), Arlington, TexasCompetition: FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16TV channel: BBC One / BBC iPlayerOur 12/1 bet builder: Lamine Yamal – 2+ shots on target, over 2.5 goals and Nuno Mendes – to be shown a cardThe three legs feed off one idea, which is Spain’s dominance down their right-hand side.Yamal starts wide right against Portugal’s left-back Nuno Mendes, so the teenager will see the ball early and often, which drives up his potential shot count and forces Mendes into cynical fouls to break up Spanish build-up on the wings.Add the goals that tend to follow when a side of Spain’s quality is this on top, which means Portugal will have to open up and go for it, and the whole slip hangs together rather than just being three completely unrelated guesses.Bet on Lamine Yamal to have 2+ shots on target – 6/5 with Paddy PowerBet Over 2.5 goals – 8/11 with Paddy PowerBet on Nuno Mendes to be shown a card – 5/2 with Paddy PowerPortugal vs Spain bet builder breakdownLamine Yamal to have 2+ shots on targetWhy: Yamal is Spain’s most dangerous player, and Portugal’s left flank is where he’ll really do his damage. Yamal likes to drift inside off the right to shoot on his left foot, and against a side that will sit deep and invite pressure, he should get into shooting positions on the regular.Stat: The numbers back this. Yamal has landed six shots on target across the tournament, including four in a single game recently. Squawka’s data has him at a goal from an xG of 2.26, the man carrying Spain’s biggest threat from wide. Two on target is a low bar for a player that likes to get this involved going forward.The risk is that Spain sometimes like to try and pass the ball into the net rather than shoot from a long way out, and Martínez may double up on Yamal with a full-back and a midfielder, cutting his sight of goal.It’s the shortest and safest leg for a reason, but it isn’t a complete certainty, so bear that in mind. Bet on Lamine Yamal to have 2+ shots on target at 6/5 with Paddy Power Over 2.5 goalsWhy: This is the leg with the most upside, but also the most risk, so I’ll be straight and upfront about both.Spain create a mountain of chances, with 23 shots to five against Austria in the last 32, (plus Austria not managing a single effort on target), and Portugal will have to come out and play at some point, which is when the game should stretch. Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leão give them enough to score at the other end.Paddy Power price over 2.5 at 8/11, with the under at evens.It’s worth noting though that Spain haven’t conceded a goal all tournament (0-0 Cape Verde, 4-0 Saudi Arabia, 1-0 Uruguay, then 3-0 Austria), and this fixture has a low-scoring habit.Stat: Seven of the last ten meetings between these two finished under 2.5 goals. Spain have shipped just 0.4 goals a game across their last ten. A 1-0 or 2-0 Spain win is very much on the table, and that’s the outcome the wider market slightly prefers.I’m playing this because I think a knockout derby between two attacking sides finds three goals more often than the recent trend suggests, but it’s the leg most likely to let the slip down, so again bear that in mind before you place this on your own builder. Bet Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Paddy Power Nuno Mendes to be shown a cardWhy: Card legs tend to live and die on the individual matchup, and this one is no different. Mendes is the man tasked with dealing with Yamal for 90 minutes, and when your winger is beating you and Spain are countering into space, the full-back’s quickest fix is a tactical foul.In a fixture this fraught, referees will reach for the card early, and Paddy Power make Mendes 5/2 to be booked.Stat: It’s worth noting though that Mendes isn’t a heavy fouler by trade, and his committed-foul average at the tournament sits at around 0.75 a game on Paddy Power’s Opta-fed data.Bernardo Silva is actually the bookies’ shortest card price at 9/5, though him starting this game isn’t actually nailed on. So, 5/2 on Mendes is my read on the matchup rather than a stats banker. Given who he’s going to be up against and what’s at stake in this game, I’m more than comfortable adding it to this builder. Bet on Nuno Mendes to be shown a card at 5/2 with Paddy Power How to place this Portugal vs Spain bet builderBuilding this on the Paddy Power app is really easy and takes under a minute. If you’re new to multi-leg bets, our World Cup 2026 betting offers guide is well worth a look before you start to put together your own bet builders for the tournament.To start, you just need to log in to the Paddy Power app (or register), then find Portugal v Spain in the FIFA World Cup section and open the match. Then, open the the Bet Builder tab and under Shots, add Lamine Yamal 2+ shots on target (including woodwork). Then under Goals, add Over 2.5 goals. Finally, under Cards & Fouls, add Nuno Mendes to be shown a card.Check the combined price that populates on your slip, it should land around 12/1, then enter your stake and place the bet.Make sure that you double-check the slip before you confirm, and shop the individual legs around, as the compounding effect of multi-leg pricing means a bigger number on even one selection actually lifts the whole return.Stats that matter for your betSupports Yamal shots: Six shots on target across the tournament and Spain’s standout wide threat (xG 2.26), attacking a Portugal left side that will spend the whole night on the back foot.Supports over 2.5: Spain generated 23 shots against Austria and arguably haven’t been out of second gear yet. Portugal will have to chase the game if the Spanish side, even if seven of the last ten Portugal-Spain meetings went under 2.5.Supports Mendes card: Yamal against Mendes is the game’s key duel, and knockout Iberian derbies rarely stay clean. Mendes is Paddy Power’s second-shortest carded player at 5/2.Team news: Both squads are close to full strength, but Spain are without wingers Nico Williams (adductor) and Yeremy Pino (shoulder), while Portugal’s only potential issue is the early double substitution of Vitinha and Fernandes against Croatia. Ronaldo is expected to start despite his dip in form.Why we are backing this bet builderSpain will boss possession in this one, as they’ve averaged close to 70% and gone unbeaten across more than 30 games. They’re likely to funnel the majority of their attacking play to Yamal on the right (which covers leg one).That sustained pressure, plus Portugal eventually needing to gamble for a goal of their own through Ronaldo and Leão, should stretch the game into over 2.5 territory (which is leg two). And, the more Yamal runs at Mendes, the likelier the Portugal left-back is going to have to take one for the team and see yellow (and there’s leg three).I won’t oversell it though, as the over 2.5 leg is fighting against a stubborn low-scoring trend in this fixture, and Spain’s clean-sheet run means a tight 1-0 could sink two of the three legs at once.But, at 12/1, there’s enough meat on the price for me. For more picks across the round, our World Cup 2026 betting tips page has the rest of the knockout ties covered.Portugal vs Spain oddsJust for some balance, here’s where the straight 1X2 market sits, with the best price on each outcome across the bookies I checked.Spain are odds-on across the board; Paddy Power hold the biggest number on the favourite, while bet365 push out the longest price on a Portugal win.Portugal win – 7/2 with bet365Draw – 5/2 with bet365Spain win – 9/10 with Paddy PowerPortugal vs Spain match prediction and line-upsSpain are the better side right now, they’ve got more control, better balance, and a defence nobody has breached in four games. I expect their quality to really tell in the final half hour, when de la Fuente’s bench depth outweighs Portugal’s.But, I’m also backing goals at both ends: Yamal and Oyarzabal should find a way through eventually, and Portugal have the set-piece threat and Ronaldo’s instinct to answer once. The obvious alternative to this would be a 1-0 grind, which the market prefers, so you should treat my scoreline suggestion as a lean and not a lock.Prediction: Portugal 1-2 SpainPortugal predictions: Martínez is set to keep faith with his 4-2-3-1 and with Ronaldo up top, despite the 41-year-old’s patchy tournament, with Gonçalo Ramos, a goal or assist every 37 minutes at this World Cup, held back as the super sub again.The concern for me is off the ball: without Ronaldo pressing, Portugal can feel a man light, and their midfield has been carved open at times, notably when Colombia racked up 24 shots against them in the group stage.Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Diogo Costa; João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes; João Neves, Vitinha; Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leão; Cristiano Ronaldo.Spain predictions: De la Fuente is expected to name an unchanged side built around the Rodri-Pedri midfield, with Oyarzabal (with four goals in four games and 16 in his last 15 for Spain) leading the line and Yamal and Álex Baena either side.The only real reshuffle is forced, with Nico Williams and Pino out, Baena keeps his place on the left. This is a settled, in-form team peaking at just the right moment.Predicted XI (4-3-3): Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri, Álex Baena; Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo.World Cup 2026 AI predictionsWorld Cup 2026 Top goalscorer oddsEngland to win World Cup 2026 oddsWorld Cup 2026: Best young player oddsAbout the authorDean EtheridgeDean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. 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