Unlike Big Brother, which is happening in real time and about to conclude, Survivor is entirely finished by the time the first episode airs. That means the editors know the full story before they start telling it, which means they know who the main characters, the key side characters and the randoms of the season are going to be. Because of that, there’s a whole sub-culture of Survivor fans who meticulously track the edit to try and predict who is most likely to win, and let the record show they’re already out on three players. I, however, am not so sure.Monitoring the edit and making predictions in an organized fashion is called Edgic (a combination of editing and logic), and one of the key metrics Edgic uses is the confessional count. That’s how many times we see a production interview from each castaway during a particular episode. The winner each season is not always the person with the most confessionals, but a general rule of thumb (sorry Brady) is that we are going to hear from the winner on a regular basis. So, if we’re not getting consistent content from someone, it probably means they’re not going to win, at least if recent history is any indication.During 41, the winner didn’t get a confessional during three separate episodes and only got one or two confessionals in five other episodes. Many fans were upset after the finale and loudly complained about how we weren’t given a chance to understand the thought process of the castaway or really see their game. They never felt like a main character; so, when they won, it didn’t feel satisfying or earned, especially given another top four finisher was severely underedited too.In the nine seasons since, the eventual winner has gotten at least one confessional in every single episode. During 50, the winner got at least three confessionals in ten of the thirteen episodes. During 49, the winner got at least three confessionals in eleven of the thirteen episodes. During 48, it was twelve of the thirteen episodes, and during 47, it was ten of the thirteen episodes. You get the point. Winners tend to be featured consistently because they’re main characters, and a season just makes more sense when a main character wins.Unfortunately, there are already a few castaways who are getting a Purple Kelly edit, which is Survivor shorthand for a player who isn’t featured prominently in the edit like Purple Kelly from Nicaragua who infamously got six total confessionals in eleven episodes. During last night’s episode, Thien An, Christian and Carter all got the dreaded zero confessional stat line. That’s not a good sign for their winning potential, but it’s especially not a good sign because there were plot-relevant opportunities to hear from them last night. Both Thien An and Christian were put into key spots in a challenge and struggled, and Carter was mixed up in all the pre-tribal council chaos. It would have made all the sense in the world to hear from each of them. The fact that we didn’t is, at minimum, a warning sign.There are already some Survivor fans who are removing them entirely as potential winners. I’m not going to go that far. Longtime host and showrunner Jeff Probst has been very open that they’re doing things differently in the Open Era, which just began, and it’s obvious from the structure and game mechanics that that’s true. It’s possible they’ve eased up on needing at least one confessional from every winner this season. It wouldn’t surprise me if someone won despite having a quiet episode.That being said, I am very confident that the winner of the season is going to be a central character in the edit, and if Thien An, Christian and Carter don’t start getting screentime very quickly, I will officially write them off. I’m already almost there with Christian. He’s had one total confessional in two episodes, which is wild considering Devin, Lewis, Brady, Jelly, Kristin and Rob all have at least nine. Carter and Thien An are marginally higher with two and three confessionals apiece, but that’s still lower than every single other player except Mike (also three) who I’m still high on because we’ve seen several scenes of him talking strategy at camp, as well as scenes from other players talking about how much they like him and want to work with him.I’m a big believer that it’s way too early to start speculating on a possible winner based on the edit. There are so many examples of castaways who seem like a key side character and really change the narrative after the merge, but I am much more open to writing players off based on the edit. Let’s wait another week or so, and then we can start officially crossing names off.You can catch new episodes of Survivor on Wednesday nights on CBS, or you can stream the show on Paramount+.