Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 29/09/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabTrading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 28/09/2026 M30 Timeframe Gold just had one of its sharpest single-day moves in months, falling more than $100 intraday and breaking cleanly through the 4,260 - 4,270 order block that had been the key structure to watch. Price extended all the way down to 4,120, marking a seven-week low, before the current session began consolidating slightly above that level. The catalyst behind this move is clear and fundamentally driven rather than purely technical. The US rejected Iran's proposed plan for the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices climbing on renewed supply concerns. Higher oil directly feeds inflation expectations, and combined with already-hawkish Fed commentary following this month's rate hike, market pricing for another hike in October has pushed to around 71%. That combination — rising energy costs and a central bank still leaning toward tightening — is a genuinely difficult environment for a non-yielding asset like gold, and the price action reflects that. Looking at the chart structure, the breakdown from the OB H1 zone came with strong displacement and minimal retracement on the way down, which is a hallmark of committed selling rather than a stop-run. A new H1 order block has now formed around 4,130 - 4,140 from the most recent consolidation, and there's a gap/FVG left behind around 4,220 - 4,230 from the sharpest part of the drop — both are zones price could realistically revisit before any meaningful reversal. My view stays bearish while price remains below the broken 4,260 - 4,270 zone. That said, after a move of this magnitude in a single session, shorting at current levels offers a poor risk-reward. The more disciplined approach is to wait for a corrective bounce into one of the zones above and look for confirmation of rejection before committing to a short, rather than selling into an already fully extended move. 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary — near-term) Zone to watch: 4,130 - 4,140 (freshly formed H1 OB) Confirms if: price rallies into this zone and stalls with a bearish CHOCH on M15/M30 Invalidates if: M30 close back above 4,150 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (deeper retest) Zone to watch: 4,220 - 4,230 (H1 FVG left behind in the breakdown) Confirms if: a stronger relief rally reaches this zone and gets rejected Invalidates if: H1 close above 4,270 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (counter-trend, low priority) Zone to watch: 4,110 - 4,120 (today's low) Confirms if: a sharp reclaim off this zone with a strong bullish CHOCH on M15 Invalidates if: clean close below 4,100 On broader levels, the near resistance sits at 4,130 - 4,140, with the further resistance at 4,220 - 4,270. Near support sits at 4,110 - 4,120, and the next psychological level below that, if selling pressure continues, is the $4,100 mark — a break there would open the door toward deeper targets discussed by several analysts this week. Given how event-driven this move has been, continued volatility should be expected around any further headlines on the Iran/Hormuz situation, oil prices, or additional Fed commentary ahead of October's meeting. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.