(World Oil) – Canadian oil sands production is expected to average a record 3.5 MMbpd in 2026, up approximately 100,000 bpd, or 3%, from 2025, according to S&P Global Energy‘s latest 10-year production outlook.Output is forecast to continue climbing to approximately 3.9 MMbpd by the early 2030s. Canadian oil sands production has increased substantially from about 300,000 bpd in 2001, with 2020 marking the only annual decline due to impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.Most of the expected 2026 growth will come from optimization of existing operations. However, S&P Global said improving investment conditions could support a return to new construction, adding potential upside to its longer-term forecast.“The question today is not whether the oil sands will continue to grow, but rather how much additional growth could come should new projects once again come forward,” said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Markets Analyst at S&P Global Energy.S&P pointed to proposed increases in pipeline export capacity, changes to carbon pricing, efforts to accelerate reviews of projects considered in the national interest and potential changes to fiscal terms as factors that could influence future investment.New projects would require significantly more capital and longer development timelines than optimization of existing facilities. S&P said project competitiveness, shareholder appetite for investment and details of a forthcoming Canada-Alberta implementation agreement will be important factors in determining whether additional developments move forward.Under its current outlook, S&P expects oil sands production to roughly plateau after reaching 3.9 MMbpd in the early 2030s. However, the firm estimates that nearly 500,000 bpd of additional production capacity could potentially advance beyond projects included in its base forecast.“This estimate is what we expect would be the most attractive and expedient projects,” said Celina Hwang, Director, Canadian Crude Oil Markets at S&P Global Energy. “Given the right conditions and time, the potential could be greater.”