U.S.Consumer confidence sinks and shutdown risk hits the dollarEuro vs US DollarACTIVTRADES:EURUSDActivTradesU.S. consumer confidence sinks and shutdown risk hits the dollar; euro and gold gain appeal By Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades U.S. consumer confidence fell in September to 81.9 points, its lowest level since 2014 and well below the forecast of 89 points, according to Conference Board data released on Tuesday. The six-month expectations index sank to 63.6, below the threshold of 80 that the institution links to a recession within the following year. The present situation indicator retreated to 109.3, with assessments of business conditions turning negative for the first time since September 2024. The August job openings (JOLTS) data, released the same day, surprised to the upside, at 7.227 million versus the 7.20 million expected. The deterioration, therefore, is concentrated in consumer perception —gasoline, prices, future employment— rather than in the hard figures of the labour market. Discretionary consumption is usually the first to feel this kind of confidence shock, which reinforces the bet that the Federal Reserve will maintain its rate-cutting cycle. The dollar reacted with broad-based weakness, with the DXY index near 97.75 points. Shutdown, the risk dominating the week The most decisive factor for the coming days is not only the confidence data, but the risk of a shutdown of the U.S. Administration, with the federal budget expiring this very Tuesday. If Republicans and Democrats fail to reach an agreement, the employment report (non-farm payrolls) due on Friday could be delayed, as has happened with employment releases during previous shutdowns. A prolonged shutdown would leave the market without its usual employment reference, a scenario that typically favours gold as a safe-haven asset and keeps the dollar under pressure. Currencies: the euro seeks a floor after extreme oversold conditions The euro is trading around $1.13465, close to its recent low of $1.13110. Moving averages show indecision, with the 50-session average above the 100-session one but without the long-term structure confirming a bullish turn. The RSI stands at extreme oversold levels, at 24.42%, and the MACD maintains a negative bias though with an upward correction. This combination of indicators suggests exhaustion of short-term selling momentum, with room for a technical rebound toward the 1.13-1.14 zone. Gold: the safe haven holds Gold is trading around $4,195, with the volume profile's point of control at $4,093.05. The RSI sits in mid-range territory (41.24%) and the MACD maintains a bearish bias in a corrective phase, with the 50- and 100-session moving averages compressing, although the 200-session average remains distant. Immediate support is located at $3,942.25, with a second level at $3,886.25. On the upside, resistance sits at $4,696.88, followed by $4,891.03, with all-time highs at $5,597.81 as the long-term reference. Outlook The market is no longer only asking whether the employment report will confirm the deterioration in confidence, but whether it will even be published on schedule. A prolonged government shutdown would leave investors relying on second-tier data, a scenario that would favour gold and keep the dollar under pressure, with the euro in technical condition to rebound from its oversold zone. If the shutdown is avoided and payrolls are published as normal, a weak reading would reinforce the case for Fed rate cuts, while an upside surprise could trigger a technical rebound in the dollar and push the euro back down toward the $1.13110 support. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.