XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – September 29, 2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDWavePoint_FX D1 Timeframe Looking at the current price action, XAUUSD is forming a very clean pattern within a larger Wave 1 and Wave 2 structure, with Wave 2 developing into a relatively clear ABC corrective structure. However, we need to pay closer attention to the current price action. Wave Structure and Fibonacci From a structural perspective, price has declined into the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone, while a fairly well-defined ABC corrective structure is also forming. At the same time, D1 momentum is showing signs of reversing. This suggests that the market has the potential to develop at least a corrective bounce from the current area. What We Need to Watch in Price Action Although the wave structure and momentum are beginning to support the possibility of a recovery, we still need to remain cautious. Yesterday’s D1 candle closed as a strong bearish candle, almost at full bearish strength, showing that selling pressure during the recent decline remains significant. Meanwhile, up to this point, we have not yet seen clear participation from buyers. Therefore, there are two scenarios to monitor: If today’s D1 candle fails to close above 50% of the previous bearish candle’s body, the decline may continue. On the other hand, if price rebounds strongly and closes in a way that nearly invalidates the previous bearish candle, this would be a positive signal suggesting that the corrective move may have ended. Conclusion At this stage, we still need to wait for today’s D1 candle to close for further confirmation. Today’s price action should give us a clearer indication of whether the market is beginning a corrective rebound, or whether price will move sideways before continuing lower. I will update the plan on the lower timeframes later.