产能过剩背景下,中国汽车业走向并购重组时代

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KEITH BRADSHER2026年9月29日去年,中国宁波吉利汽车极氪工厂装配线上的一组电池组。 Qilai Shen for The New York TimesTwo leading electric carmakers in China said on Monday they would combine their battery charging subsidiaries, in the latest sign of consolidation in a severely crowded Chinese car industry.周一,两家中国领先的电动汽车制造商表示,将合并旗下的电池充电子公司,这是中国汽车行业竞争异常激烈背景下行业整合的最新迹象。The deal will combine divisions of Nio and Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, with Nio also acquiring 10 percent of a separate Geely business. The transaction comes just two weeks after another Chinese automaker, Guangzhou Automobile Group, announced plans for a complex tie-up with First Automotive Works, a large manufacturer.此次交易将合并蔚来和浙江吉利控股集团的相关部门,蔚来还将收购吉利另一项独立业务10%的股份。就在两周前,另一家中国汽车制造商广州汽车集团宣布了与大型制造商中国一汽进行复杂结盟的计划。Last year, two of the Chinese car industry’s giants, Dongfeng Motor and Changan Automobile, were in discussions to merge but did not reach a deal.去年,中国汽车行业的两大巨头东风汽车和长安汽车曾就合并进行谈判,但未能达成协议。China’s car industry has immense overcapacity: enough car factories to build every car sold in China as well as all of the production in the United States and Europe. But its domestic car market has been shrinking since 2017, as Chinese consumer spending has been depressed by a plunge in housing prices.中国汽车行业存在巨大的产能过剩:其拥有的汽车工厂不仅足以生产在中国销售的所有汽车,甚至还能覆盖美国和欧洲的全部产量。但自2017年以来,由于房价暴跌压抑了中国消费者的支出,其国内汽车市场一直在萎缩。“There are simply too many automakers in China — mergers, acquisitions and restructuring will be a trend going forward,” said David Zhang, a visiting professor at Huanghe University of Science and Technology in Zhengzhou, China.“中国的汽车制造商实在太多了——并购重组将成为未来的趋势,”中国郑州黄河科技学院客座教授张翔说。Car sales in China shrank 20.8 percent in the first eight months of this year from the same period in 2025. Carmakers have tried to compensate by increasingly shipping their cars overseas. China’s vehicle exports are expected to reach at least 10 million this year, up from one million cars in 2020.今年前八个月,中国汽车销量较2025年同期萎缩了20.8%。汽车制造商试图通过加大汽车出口来弥补这一缺口。中国今年的汽车出口量预计将达到至少1000万辆,远高于2020年的100万辆。The European Union, concerned about the rapid decline of Europe’s auto sector, has been considering possible restrictions on further Chinese car exports. Volkswagen has struggled to compete with Chinese imports and recently announced plans to cut an additional 50,000 jobs. Senior European officials are scheduled to arrive in Beijing next week for trade talks.欧盟对欧洲汽车行业的快速衰退感到担忧,一直在考虑是否对中国的汽车出口实施进一步限制。大众汽车在与中国进口汽车的竞争中举步维艰,最近宣布计划再裁员5万名员工。欧洲高级官员定于下周抵达北京,进行贸易谈判。尽管出口激增,中国汽车工厂的产能利用率仍仅略高于一半。低于生产成本的降价导致汽车行业普遍亏损,并延迟了向供应商的付款。Even with surging exports, the average car factory in China is still operating at slightly over half of capacity. In turn, automakers have cut prices below the cost of building cars, resulting in widespread losses for car manufacturers and delays in their payments to auto parts suppliers.即便出口激增,中国普通汽车工厂的平均产能利用率仍然仅略高于一半。汽车制造商进而将售价降至造车成本以下,导致汽车制造商普遍亏损,并延迟了向汽车零部件供应商付款。In Monday’s transaction, Geely agreed to merge its battery-swapping business into Nio’s larger battery-swapping business and pay $95 million in exchange for a 30 percent stake in the combined business, which plans to have 10,000 battery-swapping stations by 2030. Nio also will take a 10 percent stake in Geely’s extensive electric car charging station division, which is expected to have 22,000 charging stations by the end of next year.在周一的交易中,吉利同意将其换电业务并入蔚来规模更大的换电业务中,并支付6.4亿元,以换取合并后业务30%的股份,合并后的业务计划到2030年建成1万座换电站。蔚来还将获得吉利庞大的电动汽车充电站业务10%的股份,该部门预计到明年年底将拥有2.2万个充电站。In addition, the companies said they would coordinate the designs of their cars related to battery swapping and recharging.此外,两家公司表示将协调各自汽车在换电和充电方面的设计。Many Chinese automakers have been talking for more than a decade about coordinating designs for battery swapping, according to Stephen Dyer, head of the Asia automotive practice at Alix Partners, a global consulting firm.全球咨询公司艾睿铂亚洲汽车业务负责人戴加辉(Stephen Dyer)表示,十多年来,许多中国汽车制造商一直在探讨协调换电设计的事宜。The agreement between Geely and Nio, which together sold 1.3 million battery-electric or plug-in hybrid cars in the first half of this year, represents a step toward standardization in battery manufacturing.吉利和蔚来在今年上半年共售出了130万辆纯电动或插电式混合动力汽车,两家公司达成的这项协议代表着向电池制造标准化迈进了一步。“It’s just really invasive to design your vehicle around a battery-swapping standard,” Mr. Dyer said.“围绕换电标准来设计车辆,对设计的干预程度确实很高,”戴加辉说。Battery swapping, in which drivers pull up to a roadside facility and an automated shed replaces a depleted battery with a fully charged one, takes three or four minutes. It takes twice as long for an 80 percent charge with even a very fast charger. But battery swapping remains far less popular than plug-in chargers in China and elsewhere, and many auto analysts have questioned whether battery swapping will ever catch up.换电是指司机把车停在路边的设施旁,由自动更换舱将耗尽的电池更换为充满电的电池,整个过程需要三四分钟。而即使使用非常快的充电桩,将电池充到80%电量所需的时间也是换电的两倍。但在中国和其他地方,换电的普及程度仍然远不及插电式充电桩,许多汽车分析师也质疑,换电究竟能否迎头赶上。2021年,上海的一处蔚来电池换电站。BYD, the industry leader in China, has suffered a 34 percent drop in domestic retail sales so far this year, while Geely’s sales have dropped half as much. As a result, Geely has nearly caught up this year to BYD in the Chinese market.今年迄今为止,行业领军企业比亚迪在中国的国内零售销量下降了34%,而吉利的销量降幅仅为其一半。因此,吉利今年在中国市场几乎赶上了比亚迪。Guangzhou Auto disclosed in a stock market filing on Sept. 15 that it planned to issue shares to First Auto Works, which China’s national government owns directly. In exchange, Guangzhou Auto will gain part ownership of a longtime joint venture between First Auto Works and Toyota. The transaction will turn First Auto Works into the second-largest shareholder in Guangzhou Auto after the Guangzhou municipal government.广汽集团在9月15日的一份股市文件中披露,计划向中国中央政府直接持有的中国一汽配售股份。作为交换,广汽集团将获得一汽集团与丰田长期合资企业的一部分股权。此项交易将使一汽集团成为广汽集团的第二大股东,仅次于广州市人民政府。Guangzhou Auto has its own joint venture with Toyota that competes with the First Auto Works joint venture with the Japanese giant.广汽集团自身也有一家与丰田的合资企业,与中国一汽同这家日本巨头的合资企业存在竞争关系。Since the 1980s, China has required foreign automakers to partner with Chinese companies to enter the Chinese market. Chinese automakers learned much from these partnerships.自20世纪80年代以来,中国一直要求外国汽车制造商必须与中国企业结成合作伙伴才能进入中国市场。中国汽车制造商从这些合作关系中获益良多。As part of its response to the flood of Chinese exports, the European Union has been mulling whether to require joint ventures for Chinese electric car manufacturers. China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement in March that it strongly opposed any imposition by the E.U. of joint venture requirements, technology sharing mandates and similar rules, describing them as “serious investment barriers and institutional discrimination.”作为应对中国出口产品涌入的部分举措,欧盟一直在考虑是否要求中国电动汽车制造商成立合资企业。中国商务部在今年3月的一份声明中表示,强烈反对欧盟强加合资要求、技术共享强制令及类似规定,称其为“严重的投资壁垒和制度性歧视”。Ruoxin Zhang对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。