Bitcoin Monthly Candle Close Patterns since 2011 - Rare close Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDOrriginalQuote from last months post "We may be beginning a New Cycle dynamic and the BIG question for this chart, is will a New PA Dynamic change how Candle patterns display and work out. Will the Monthly Candle Color Close seqence change ? Will "UpTober" continue to exist ? Statistical Odds say September should be RED Previous Patterns point towards GREEN" September Closed GREEN, against the Odds. This is only the 2nd time in Bitcoin History that we have a Green September after a Green August and what is more, that is after a Run of Green candles in orevious months, as we have just done. That other occasion was September 2012 ( Left Fat Arrow ) and was followed by a Red October. PA continued to Rise from November onwards. Close up of Current PA Last Month we talked about the patterns Arrowed with Thin Arrows, that had a Range, sharp Red Drop and then Green candle Rises off the 50 Month SMA. They had 4 Green Candles from the Low, before one had a Red Month, the other had a very shallow Green Month, We have just closed the 3rd Green Month after that bounce. Could we expect a Green October, YES However, it may not be Huge and more than that, it could be a small red one, as in 2012. Either result will still be Bullish unless we see a Steep Drop Previous October Closes are 10 Green to 5 Red. Twice the Odds for Green to Red, However, remember, September just closing Green went against the Odds. We have had only 2 Occasions of a Red October after a Green September. Again, in 2012, left fat Arrow. The other was more recent, in October 2025 There have been 4 Green Octobers after a Green September and they ALL were after PA bounced off the 50 Month SMA and the year that followed ! The most recent example of this was 2023, 2024 ( Thin Arrows ) I am ABSOLUTLY watching this pattern idea to repeat this time around. I Will now add another indicator that I Never usualy use in these charts because it is an ABSOLUTE pointer to where we are in a Bircoin Cycle. Current Month MACD ( Yellow line ) is bouncing off Neutral and is heading towards a Bullish crossover with its Signal line ( RED ). MACD is a lagging indicator, it moves AFTER the event and so we can use it a confirmation of continued moves on a monthly scale. And so, As PA rises, this MACD will react a month or so later and as that Signal line also rises, the Bullish crossover becomes harder to get to. That projected Crossover date will be later in November maybe and a Dip in PA will bring this back , closer to the MACD line. If you look at the MACD on the dates were we have these thinner arrows ( marked with Big Dot vertical lines ) we see the SAME SITUATION on the MACD; MACD rising off the Low..And we all know what followed this...RISE TO ATH 2023 MACD 2015 MACD So, Historicaly, these MACD positions correspond vERY WELL with the idea of the Candle patterns CONCLUSION For me there is little doubt of the start of a bull Run now, as mentioned Months ago. But MACRO world events could throw spanners and delay it a little but certainly NOT stop it. October, or UPtober as it is often called, Will not be dissapointing, I can see a Green candle and November being a month were we may see A Range / Dip till we pick up in December again. This could be Wrong, so please, we need to see how things work out. With Bitcoin printing its 3rd consequtive Green candle, Odds of a Red candle Rise. There have been only 9 Runs of 3 or more Green candles in a row. Two were in 2023 and 2025, which had a High Bitcoin Price. The 2025 Run was pretty well the price we are currently at, so the High Bitcoin price should NOT be a presauding factor against anther run of 4 or more Green Months. Longer term, I am a little nervous of what late Q2 / Q3 2027 may bring but we face that when the time comes. Time will Tell