President John Mahama’s plans for Ghana’s proposed national airline to explore routes to South America and the Caribbean are raising questions about the size of the potential passenger market and whether available traffic data support the proposed expansion.President Mahama hinted at the prospect during bilateral talks with Suriname’s President Jennifer Geerlings-Simons in New York on September 23, 2026, on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly.During the engagement, President Mahama indicated that connectivity with the Caribbean and South American region could form part of the future route network of Ghana’s national carrier as the country seeks to expand trade, tourism, investment and people-to-people exchanges across the Atlantic.The proposal is not entirely new.During his official visit to Jamaica in August, President Mahama and Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness agreed to accelerate work on a Bilateral Air Services Agreement that would facilitate direct flights between Accra and Montego Bay once the agreement is concluded.The Presidency announced this on August 3, 2026.But a key question remains: how many passengers currently travel between Ghana and South America and the Caribbean, and is that traffic sufficient to support direct routes?The question comes against the backdrop of recent drug-trafficking cases involving Ghana.Passenger marketSouth America is a major global source of cocaine. The 2026 World Drug Report identifies Colombia, Peru and Brazil among the main departure countries for cocaine shipments recorded between 2020 and 2024. Brazil also features in trafficking routes to Africa and Europe.The Ghana Civil Aviation Authority’s 2025 international aviation statistics show that Ghana recorded 2,539,034 international passenger movements during the year.Of that figure, 1,238,220 were arrivals, and 1,300,814 were departures.The GCAA also recorded 46,372 tonnes of international freight and 181,826 transit passengers in 2025.The figures are contained in the Authority’s official 2025 General Statistics – International report.However, the publicly available GCAA statistics do not separately identify South America and the Caribbean.Instead, international passenger movements are presented under broad regional categories.In 2025, Europe accounted for 866,714 passenger movements, East Africa 423,836, West Africa 406,536, North America 309,932, the Middle East 290,098, North Africa 152,718 and Southern Africa 78,924.The category listed as “Others” accounted for 10,276 passenger movements.The GCAA publishes its aviation statistics on its official website, including annual statistics for 2021 through 2025.The absence of a separate South America and Caribbean category means the publicly available figures do not provide enough information to establish existing passenger traffic between Ghana and individual destinations such as Brazil, Suriname, Argentina, Colombia, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago or Barbados.That raises an important question for the proposed national carrier: what passenger-demand analysis is the government relying on to identify these markets?The answer could determine whether the proposed routes are intended to serve an existing pool of passengers currently travelling through connecting hubs or whether the government expects the new airline itself to generate substantial new demand.A viable long-haul route would normally require sufficient passenger traffic, appropriate aircraft capacity, sustainable load factors and revenues capable of covering operating costs.The government and the prospective strategic partner for the national airline could therefore face questions over whether detailed route studies have been conducted for the proposed destinations.Such studies would ideally show projected passenger numbers, expected load factors, flight frequencies, aircraft requirements, operating costs and projected revenues.Security questionsThe proposed expansion also comes as Ghana faces heightened scrutiny over international cocaine trafficking.Since 2025, Ghana has been linked to several major international drug-trafficking cases, including the seizure of more than 3.3 tonnes of cocaine in Cape Coast; 73 cocaine slabs concealed in wooden artefacts at Kotoka International Airport; a 320kg shipment of methamphetamine from Ghana intercepted in Australia; 866 parcels of suspected cocaine hidden in gari at Tema; and nearly 3.9 tonnes of suspected cocaine reportedly shipped from Ghana and intercepted in France.The cases have involved Ghana’s airports, ports and commercial cargo channels.South America is a major source region for cocaine in global trafficking networks, making aviation security an important consideration whenever Ghana considers establishing new direct air links with the region.However, the recent drug cases do not establish a connection between the proposed national airline and narcotics trafficking, and there is no publicly established evidence that the government intends to use the airline to transport illicit drugs.The relevant question is instead whether Ghana’s existing aviation and border-security systems will be sufficiently robust to prevent criminal networks from exploiting new international routes.This includes passenger screening, baggage checks, cargo inspection, passenger information systems, customs controls and intelligence-sharing among agencies responsible for border and aviation security.The commercial and security questions are therefore separate but important aspects of the proposed expansion.On the commercial side, the missing piece is detailed country-level passenger data showing how many people currently travel between Ghana and the proposed South American and Caribbean markets.On the security side, the issue is whether the systems and controls accompanying the new routes will be strong enough to prevent their exploitation by organised criminal networks.Until detailed route-level passenger projections and the underlying feasibility studies are made public, it remains difficult to independently assess the size of the market for Ghana’s proposed direct air links with South America and the Caribbean.For the proposed national airline, the central test will ultimately be whether the routes can attract enough legitimate passenger and cargo traffic to operate sustainably while maintaining strong aviation-security controls.