H1 Major Demand Recovery SetupGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_Drake XAUUSD is trading around 4,144 after the latest recovery failed beneath the descending dynamic resistance and produced a fresh MSS lower. Price is now moving back toward the 4,105–4,120 Major Demand / SSL Zone, which becomes the key H1 decision area. The macro picture is becoming more balanced for gold. August U.S. PCE inflation rose 0.3% MoM, below the 0.4% consensus, while annual core PCE was 3.0%. That softer print reduced the market-implied probability of an October Fed hike to roughly 39%, providing some potential support for gold. However, gold still fell on September 30 as energy prices and elevated yields limited the benefit from softer inflation. Reuters Oil remains another risk. Brent settled around $103.50 after U.S.–Iran negotiations stalled, keeping energy-driven inflation concerns alive. Reuters Technical View H1 remains structurally bearish beneath the descending resistance line, but price is approaching a much more important lower support area. The 4,105–4,120 Major Demand / SSL Zone previously generated a strong reaction and now represents the cleaner location to watch for another liquidity sweep. If price sweeps this zone and quickly reclaims it, a bullish CHoCH/MSS or higher-low formation could initiate another corrective recovery. The first important upside obstacle is the 4,162–4,184 Recovery / Reclaim Zone. Acceptance above this area would improve the short-term structure. Above that, 4,238–4,255 is the main H1 Resistance / Supply Zone and likely the more difficult barrier for buyers. The larger recovery target remains the 4,300–4,320 HTF Supply / Bearish OB. Key Zones Current Price: 4,143.595 Major Demand / SSL: 4,105–4,120 Recovery / Reclaim Zone: 4,162–4,184 Major Resistance / Supply: 4,238–4,255 HTF Supply / Bearish OB: 4,300–4,320 Trading Plan Buy Priority: 4,105–4,120 Condition: wait for liquidity sweep + reclaim, bullish rejection, higher-low formation or bullish MSS/CHoCH confirmation. TP1: 4,162–4,184 TP2: 4,238–4,255 TP3: 4,300–4,320 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,100. Buy/Sell View The preferred approach is not to chase the market around 4,140. The cleaner recovery setup sits lower at 4,105–4,120, where SSL and Major Demand converge. If buyers successfully reclaim 4,162–4,184, the recovery thesis becomes stronger. Until that happens, any upside move remains corrective inside the broader bearish structure. Important Note Softer PCE has reduced the urgency for an immediate Fed hike, and New York Fed President John Williams has said there is no need to rush another increase. But the December tightening probability remains high, while elevated oil prices can quickly revive inflation concerns. Reuters Final View Gold remains bearish on the broader H1 structure, but price is approaching a high-interest liquidity area. The main scenario is a sweep into 4,105–4,120 followed by confirmed bullish recovery, targeting 4,162–4,184 first and then 4,238–4,255. Can buyers defend Major Demand and reclaim the H1 recovery zone?