ETH | Sweep Below Before the Next ExtensionEthereum / TetherUSBINANCE:ETHUSDTBigBelugaBy analyzing the #ETH (Ethereum) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see a market that impulsed, corrected in three waves, broke out of its corrective channel and delivered its first extension target — and now needs to collect the liquidity beneath it before the next one. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 4H TIMEFRAME ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The impulse. The structure turned bullish with the BOS at $2,000 and price expanded vertically to $2,534.64. That leg is the reference for everything measured since. The correction. What followed was three waves, not a reversal. (A) down into the low $2,400s, (B) up to the September 11 high, and (C) down to $2,357.77 — the Protected Low. The whole structure was contained inside a corrective channel. The break. Price broke that channel to the upside in mid-September and confirmed it with the BOS above $2,670. From there it ran to $2,808.08, clearing the 1.272 extension at $2,710.02 — the first measured objective of the impulse, delivered. Price is now at $2,697.23, ranging beneath the high it just printed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE KEY LEVELS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ $$$ — $2,603.00 Resting liquidity beneath the range. The first pool price has to collect. $$$ — $2,567.74 The deeper pool, sitting beneath the 0.5 retracement of the last leg. Below the midpoint is discount — that is where the buying area is, not up here. BSL — $2,808.08 The high just printed. Still the nearest pool above. 1.618 Extension — $2,933.12 The second measured objective of the impulse, untouched. Protected Low — $2,357.77 Wave (C). The line the entire bullish case rests on. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE BIAS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Bullish while price holds above the Protected Low at $2,357.77. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SCENARIO A — THE BASE CASE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Price is ranging, and ranges resolve by taking one side first. The liquidity beneath at $2,603.00 and $2,567.74 is the obvious side — it is untouched, it is close, and it sits below the 0.5 of the last leg. The sequence: sweep into that area, react from discount, then resume upward through $2,808.08 toward the 1.618 at $2,933.12. Buying here at $2,697 means buying above the liquidity that has to be taken. Waiting for the sweep means buying after it is taken. Those are two different trades at the same idea. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SCENARIO B — NO SWEEP ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Price breaks $2,808.08 directly without returning for the pools beneath. Same destination, no defined entry, and the liquidity below stays as unfinished business under an extended market. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ INVALIDATION ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ A 4H close below the Protected Low at $2,357.77. That is wave (C); beneath it the correction was not a correction. An earlier warning: a close below $2,567.74 that does not reclaim turns the sweep into a breakdown, and the entry thesis ends there — well before the structure does. And the rule that governs all of it: a break is a candle close, not a wick. The dip into $2,603 and $2,567.74 is the event this idea is waiting for. It will look identical to a failure while it is happening. The close is what separates them. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The accumulation is aggressive. Bitmine Immersion added another 17,362 ETH ($46.8M), taking its holdings to roughly 4.9% of all outstanding Ethereum, with 84% of it staked — a 5% target originally planned over five years, reached in about 15 months. On infrastructure, Chainlink's CCIP 2.0 combined with Ethereum's Fast Confirmation Rule cut cross-chain settlement from 13 minutes to 12–24 seconds. Glamsterdam arrives in Q4 2026 with enshrined proposer-builder separation. The other side is live. A $387.5M security breach at Bitget on September 24 is still being unwound, with phased ETH withdrawals only resuming September 29. Sentiment is split — a bearish head-and-shoulders is being called on this same 4H timeframe by part of the market. That split is exactly why the liquidity below is likely to be taken before the next leg. A market where half the participants are short into a range gives the sweep something to collect. This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳