How to Make Money with Rising Interest Rates

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How to Make Money with Rising Interest RatesAres Capital CorporationNASDAQ:ARCCVasileios_KairaktidisARCC Ares Capital (ARCC): A Potential Beneficiary of Higher Rates Rising-rate environments can be challenging for investors, particularly when persistent inflation forces central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy. However, certain business models can benefit from higher interest rates. Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is one such company worth examining. ARCC is a business development company (BDC) specializing primarily in financing U.S. middle-market companies, providing capital through instruments including senior secured loans, subordinated debt and equity investments. An important part of the investment thesis is ARCC's exposure to floating-rate lending. Many of its loans are priced using a benchmark rate such as SOFR plus a credit spread. As benchmark rates rise, the yield generated by these floating-rate investments can increase. This creates an unusual dynamic in a tightening cycle. Whereas higher interest rates can compress valuations across much of the equity market, ARCC can benefit from higher interest income on its floating-rate portfolio. If the increase in asset yields exceeds the increase in ARCC's own financing costs and credit losses remain contained, higher rates can translate into stronger net investment income. ARCC's substantial dividend provides another component of the thesis. As a regulated investment company, ARCC distributes a significant portion of its investment income to shareholders. Stronger net investment income can therefore improve dividend coverage and potentially support higher distributions. However, this should not be interpreted as ARCC being immune to market downturns. The COVID crash demonstrated the opposite: ARCC experienced a severe drawdown in early 2020 before subsequently recovering. Higher rates also introduce an important countervailing risk. ARCC's borrowers themselves face higher interest expenses. If monetary conditions remain restrictive for too long, deteriorating borrower fundamentals, increasing non-accruals and credit losses could eventually outweigh the benefit ARCC receives from higher floating-rate yields. The fundamental thesis is therefore not simply "higher rates = higher ARCC earnings." Rather, ARCC can perform particularly well when rates remain elevated while economic conditions and borrower credit quality remain sufficiently resilient. Technical Setup From a technical perspective, ARCC has broken out of its corrective channel after retesting a significant horizontal support zone. This area also aligns with the Value Area Low (VAL) of the Volume Range Visible Profile anchored near the beginning of the post-2020 recovery. Following the breakout, price established a rising channel before encountering resistance around the 200-day EMA. It subsequently retraced toward a minor horizontal support level corresponding with a previous swing high within the broader rising structure. This support area also shows confluence with the basis of the Bollinger Bands, strengthening its technical significance. We therefore view the current area as a potentially attractive entry zone, provided that the identified support structure remains intact. A decisive breakdown below this support would weaken the technical thesis and warrant reassessment of the position.