USDCAD — Time to Go Down? 1.4215 Holds the KeyU.S. DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLARFX_IDC:USDCADRendra_AzrulsyahThis is a continuation of my previous USDCAD analysis: Previous Analysis: USDCAD — Relentless Bullish Momentum; 1.4239 Resistance in Focus Bullish momentum is facing an important test. The ascending channel has been broken, but one key support level still stands between a potential recovery and a deeper bearish correction: 1.4215. Higher-Timeframe Bias — 4H On the 4H timeframe, USDCAD is developing a large ascending triangle. This broader structure could remain an important reference into next year, provided its boundaries remain intact. 1.4239 remains a critical higher-timeframe resistance zone. A temporary move above this level is not enough; buyers need to establish a sustained breakout to strengthen the broader bullish continuation scenario. Importantly, a short-term bearish correction would not, by itself, invalidate the larger ascending triangle. View the 4H Ascending Triangle Short-Term Structure — 1H After failing to sustain its move above resistance, USDCAD has broken below its ascending channel. This is an early warning that bullish momentum is weakening. However, the higher-low support around 1.4215 remains the immediate decision level. The channel breakdown alone does not confirm that sellers have taken full control. View the 1H Setup and Key Levels Bullish Scenario — Can Buyers Defend 1.4215? Buyers have not necessarily lost control just because the channel has broken. If 1.4215 holds, this support could provide a base for another recovery attempt. The first challenge would be reclaiming the 1.4239 resistance zone, followed by a potential move toward 1.4259. For this setup, I would look for a clear bullish reaction at support, followed by a 1H candle close back above 1.4239. A subsequent retest that holds above this area would strengthen the recovery scenario. Bullish Target: 1.4259 A confirmed breakdown below 1.4215 would invalidate this immediate support-based rebound scenario. Bearish Scenario — 1.4215 Is the Confirmation Level The significance of 1.4215 comes from the confluence of higher-low support and the nearby Fibonacci 0.382 retracement zone. With the ascending channel already broken, losing this support would provide additional evidence of a bearish shift in the short-term market structure. For bearish confirmation, I would look for a 1H candle close below 1.4215, followed by a failed retest from underneath. A brief wick below support would not meet this confirmation rule. If confirmed, the next downside target would be: Bearish Target: 1.4152 — Market-Structure Support This could strengthen the case for bearish pressure through the remainder of this week and into next week, provided price remains below the broken support. It would not guarantee when, or whether, the target is reached. Bearish Invalidation A sustained recovery above 1.4215 after the breakdown would undermine the bearish setup and raise the possibility of a false break. Reclaiming 1.4239 and moving back inside the ascending channel would further weaken the immediate bearish case. Technical Outlook Above 1.4215: A recovery remains possible, with 1.4239 as the first hurdle and 1.4259 as the bullish target. Confirmed breakdown below 1.4215: The focus shifts toward a bearish correction targeting 1.4152. The channel breakdown is the warning. A confirmed loss of 1.4215 would be the stronger bearish signal. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. The scenarios are conditional, and no outcome is guaranteed. Forex trading involves substantial risk, especially when using leverage. Apply appropriate risk management and independently assess market conditions before making any trading decision.