How Far Could TSLA Fall Before New Businesses Restore ConfidenceTesla, Inc.BATS:TSLAKrisadaYoonaisilHow Far Could Tesla (TSLA) Fall Before New Businesses Restore Confidence? Fundamental Analysis 1. Tesla shares (TSLA) plunged after Q2 earnings missed expectations and automotive margins weakened. Investors also questioned heavy spending on AI, Robotaxi and Optimus, wiping around 214.5 billion USD from Tesla’s market value in one day. 2. Tesla also recorded negative free cash flow of over 1 billion USD for the first time since early 2024, as capex more than doubled to nearly 6 billion USD. It plans to spend over 25 billion USD in 2026, up from 8.5 billion USD in 2025. 3. Tesla has directly acknowledged that its heavy investment in AI, software and fleet-based businesses will weigh on profitability in the near term, although the company believes these investments will generate revenue and profits in the future. 4. Tesla’s outlook depends on whether its AI, robotics, autonomous mobility and energy businesses can generate returns that justify the massive investment. 5. As Tesla invests in future businesses, shareholders may face weaker margins, volatile cash flow and high uncertainty. Investor patience may therefore be tested for some time. Technical Analysis 6. After consolidating within a triangle pattern for some time, TSLA fell below the lower boundary of the sideways range. This confirmed a bearish breakout and indicated the potential for further downside continuation. 7. The bearish breakout opened with a wide gap and was followed by a long bearish candlestick, signalling strong downside momentum that could drive further follow-through selling. 8. This was the second gap-down move, representing a measuring gap, after the breakaway gap formed late last year. Based on the gap pattern, the projected downside target is around 222. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness