Gold erases recent gains as the US-Iran war, tightening financial conditions weigh

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold erased most of the gains from the likely technical-driven rebound of the last couple of days. The rebound lacked support from the near-term fundamentals as the prolonged US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices even higher and traders increased rate hike bets. There’s not much to look at on the fundamental side than just monitoring the US-Iran developments. A de-escalation would lead to a dovish repricing and trigger a relief rally in gold, but as long as the conflict continues, the tightening in financial conditions will keep the market under pressure.There is also some fear that the Fed could surprise with a rate hike at the upcoming July meeting if the situation in the Middle East doesn’t improve. Although the probability is low, if it were to happen, gold prices would sink into new lows.  GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold erased most of the recent rebound as the fundamental picture remained unchanged. The trendline is acting as resistance and the sellers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to open the door for a rally into the next major trendline around the 4,500 level. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price action has been mostly rangebound since late June, and this leaves traders with little to do other than waiting for a breakout or a fundamental catalyst. The buyers will need the price to break above the 4,200 resistance to gain more conviction for a reversal of the trend, while the sellers will look for a break below the 3,885 level to extend the selloff into the 3,700 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 4,200 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we conclude the week with the Flash US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.