Fed blackout; AI-capex cluster, tariff sunset 7/24State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYIvanLabrieFour dated events inside five days carry the tape into the July 28-29 FOMC and the Fed is in blackout the whole week. USTR Section 301 determinations on Monday 7/20 (weakly sourced date, verify). The midweek after-close earnings cluster (TSLA, TXN, NOW and IBM's formal print Tuesday, GOOGL the Wednesday marquee) is the first live test of the AI-capex top read that fired on 7/17 across the semis and hyperscaler shorts. The SOX closed the week -12.5% and over 20% off its late-June high, bear-market territory, after China's Moonshot open model. Section 122 sunsets 00:01 ET Friday 7/24, taking the US effective tariff rate from about 11% to about 8.2% absent a Congressional extension (no extension bill pending). Friday 9:45 the Flash PMIs land, composite consensus ~51.9 (July), June manufacturing 55.7 and services 51.3. Composite over 50 keeps the growth crack un-tripped and the higher-for-longer, no-cut regime intact. On Saturday I posted the QQQ weekly-top call: QQQ closed the week -4.16% at 695.33, back under the first Warsh FOMC key level 731.62 (my median of the event range, the price that bakes in expectations plus reaction plus digested positioning around the regime-reset FOMC). Weekly signal projects five downside targets stacking to 468. Structure rhymes with the January 2022 top. Invalidation is a weekly close over 731.62. SPY closed under its Warsh line 745.41 too, so the AI-capex re-rate is broader than one index. Energy stays the receipt: Brent through $90 on the Monday reopen on an open US-Iran shooting war around the Strait; gasoline long half booked and a runner on (products over crude); NWE diesel crack a record ~$60-66 on Russia's producer-inclusive export ban. Signals scorecard: BULL 4 / BEAR 3 / NEUTRAL 11, two factors past kill lines (P/E 26.7x over 25, Junk Spreads 2.71 under 3.0). VIX 18.4 is sub-20 into the tariff binary and the AI-capex cluster; own cheap optionality over the directional bet. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.