Gold weekly chart GOLD (XAUUSD) — 15M Multi-Level Roadmap GoldOANDA:XAUUSDF0rexBorexGOLD (XAUUSD) — 15M Multi-Level Roadmap Bias: NEUTRAL, bullish tilt (Daily) | Last price 4,052.85 (Fri close) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟢 BUY SCENARIO — breakout continuation ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Entry: 4,060.00 (needs a confirmed break + hold, not just a wick) Stop: ~4,052.50 (ATR-scaled) — widen once FOMC-week volatility hits Overall trigger probability: ~55% Target Est. probability of reaching 4,070.00 ....... 48% 4,080-84 ....... 38% (Friday's high / fib 61.8% / bearish OB confluence) 4,100-04 ....... 28% 4,110-14 ....... 22% 4,120.00 ....... 18% 4,182.00 ....... 10% 4,206.00 ....... 7% 4,250.00 ....... 4% 4,400.00 ....... 1% (deep stretch, treat as reference only) Why: Price already bounced hard off 4,022.06 (validated 1H/Daily demand zone) to a Friday high of 4,082.16, printing a genuine higher-high/ higher-low sequence over the week (lows: 3,959.80 -> 3,999.92 -> 4,040.19; highs: 4,104 -> 4,166.13). Two unfilled bullish FVGs (4,032-4,035 and 4,039-4,044) sit underneath as support on any pullback. The 78.6% fib retracement (4,052.89) lands almost exactly on Friday's close - a clean high-conviction pivot. Caution: still below both the 20-day and 50-day SMA - this is a bounce inside a larger multi-month downtrend, not a confirmed reversal. Scale out at each level; move stop to breakeven once 4,070 clears. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 SELL SCENARIO — breakdown / reversal ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Entry: 4,036.00 (needs a confirmed CLOSE below - this sits inside a zone that already held once this week) Stop: ~4,043.50 (ATR-scaled) Overall trigger probability: ~25% Target Est. probability of reaching 4,020.00 ....... 20% (matches the validated zone low, 4,022.06) 4,010.00 ....... 15% 4,000.00 ....... 12% 3,992.00 ....... 10% 3,982.00 ....... 8% 3,960.00 ....... 6% (near the major 4H/1H swing low, 3,959.80) 3,940.00 ....... 4% 3,910-14 ....... 3% 3,855.00 ....... 1% (deep stretch, treat as reference only) Why: This is the counter-trend case - it requires the proven 4,022-4,040 demand zone to actually fail. If it does, the next real structure is the prior higher low (3,999.92, Jul 20) then the major swing low (3,959.80, Jul 17). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ Notes ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ - 4,280 and 4,380 sit outside the sequential ladder on both sides (numerically above even the 4,206/4,250 buy targets) - treating these as low-probability (1-3%) bullish extension references, not part of either main scenario. - Major event week ahead: FOMC rate decision Wed Jul 29, BOE + BOJ policy decisions Fri Jul 31. Expect volatility well above Friday's calm ATR reading once markets reopen - size and stops accordingly. - Fibonacci retracement, 2 order blocks, ascending trend line, and 3 fair value gaps marked directly on the chart for reference. Not financial advice. Probabilities are technical-confluence estimates based on current structure, not a backtested win rate.