The 2019 Playbook Points to a Correction FirstS&P 500SPCFD:SPXBeforeConsensusMost traders are comparing the current market to 2018. I think 2019 is the more useful comparison. The reason isn't the headlines. It's the sequence: • QT ended. • Liquidity started rising. • Rates moved lower and then flattened. • Equities continued pushing higher. That environment was bullish over the medium term, but it did not prevent corrections along the way. My base case remains the same: The broader bull market remains intact, but a 20-25% correction would not be unusual before the next major advance. The NASDAQ has already shown a similar pattern: test prior major resistance, correct back toward key moving-average support, then resume higher. If the S&P 500 follows a similar path, traders should be prepared for a significant pullback rather than assuming every dip will remain shallow. The key question is not whether liquidity is improving. The key question is whether the market needs a reset before the next leg higher.