S&P 500 Weekly Outlook – Wedge Break Confirms WeaknessS&P 500SPCFD:SPXCryptocurrencyWatchGroupS&P 500 Weekly Outlook – The Wedge Has Broken. Bears Take the First Step. (July 25, 2026) Last week, I warned that the S&P 500 was approaching a major technical inflection point. Price had rallied back to the previous highs near 7,620, creating the potential for a double top while simultaneously forming a rising wedge—a pattern that often signals buyers are losing momentum as price continues to grind higher. This week, the first bearish signal has arrived. The S&P 500 has now broken below the rising wedge, confirming that bullish momentum is fading and that sellers are beginning to gain control. The Wedge Breakdown Changes the Picture A rising wedge is a bearish pattern because price continues making higher highs and higher lows, but each rally becomes weaker than the last. Eventually, buyers run out of momentum and support gives way. That is exactly what we're seeing. Instead of breaking above 7,620, the market was rejected at resistance for a second time before breaking below the wedge support. This doesn't guarantee a major correction, but it does shift the technical outlook in favor of the bears. The Next Level That Matters: The Neckline While the wedge breakdown is the first bearish confirmation, the double top is not fully confirmed yet. The next critical level is the neckline around 7,350. If the S&P 500 closes decisively below that support, the double-top pattern would be confirmed, increasing the probability of a larger move lower. Think of it this way: Step 1: ✅ Rising wedge breaks (already happened) Step 2: ⏳ Neckline breaks near 7,350 Step 3: 🎯 Gap-fill target near 6,645 Step 4: 🎯 March lows near 6,318 First Downside Target: Fill the Gap If the neckline fails, the first major downside objective is the open gap around 6,645. From current levels, that would represent approximately a 12.7% correction. Markets frequently revisit gaps before establishing a longer-term direction, making this a logical first target if selling pressure continues. Second Downside Target: March Lows Should sellers maintain control after the gap is filled, the next significant support sits near the March 30 lows around 6,318. A decline to that level would represent roughly a 20.4% correction from the recent highs, bringing the market to the threshold commonly associated with a bear market. What Bulls Need to Do To invalidate this bearish setup, buyers need to: Reclaim the broken wedge. Hold above the neckline. Break decisively above 7,620. Until that happens, rallies should be viewed cautiously, as they may simply be relief bounces within a developing correction. Bottom Line The technical picture has shifted. Last week, this was only a warning that momentum was fading. This week, the market has delivered its first bearish confirmation by breaking the rising wedge. The next battle is the neckline near 7,350. If that support fails, the probability of a move toward 6,645 increases substantially. Should selling continue beyond the gap, the March lows near 6,318 become the next major objective. The bears have won the first round. Now the market will decide whether this becomes a routine correction—or the beginning of something much larger.