Weekly Review (Jul 27–31): FX, Gold, Silver & IndicesEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDConfluxMethodWeekly review for July 27-31. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow and options data. Context: the next two weeks are the key ones, because of the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan meetings and the NFP that follows. The main driver is the dynamics of the US 10-year yield. If yields keep rising, the dollar stays strong and risk assets stay under pressure; at the first signs of a reversal in yields, I'd expect a large correction in the dollar and a recovery across most markets. On the fundamentals, an intervention next week looks highly likely. EURUSD (main chart above) The zones have narrowed and landed exactly where they should. Wednesday's volatility is being actively traded on the options. There's a one-point zone at 1.1380, and from there it can ride to the straddle and the puts; those are the biggest openings, so 100 points is an easy ride, I'll be up and working from the open. I'll also work 1.1411 for now. Ideally a 200-point drop for buys, because there the US with its Treasuries should start scrambling, and that's weakness for the dollar. On Friday there were also a lot of options openings around 1.1275–1.1285, where you can work a pullback with a reduced lot. Bigger picture: I expect the current decline to finish and a reversal to form, with the buy interest around 1.1185, and a medium-term recovery target of 1.1560–1.1735 if things stabilize after the Fed. First the decline, then the correction up. DXY (dollar index) 103.90 is visually the ceiling for now, but the main Debt is at 106.50. Everything will depend on Warsh and Bessent; the Treasuries and their actions are the foundation next week. The key scenario is a continued rise in the 10-year yield toward the important resistances, supporting the dollar into the 102.7–104 area. A vertical rise to 106.50 is very unlikely, because on the 10-year that's the 5.75–6% region, a financial-crisis level for the whole world. The Fed would need to hike 0.5% on Wednesday, and then after a spike up in the dollar everything goes into a correction, the 10-year too. But I strongly doubt they'll even hike 25 basis points; more likely they wait until September, and that waiting could drag the 10-year toward 6%, which is a dollar at 106.50 and the euro around 1.0985 on spot. If the crisis scenario develops, DXY could go to 106–108. After the Fed or the US Treasury steps in, I'd expect the yields to reverse and the dollar to weaken. US10Y (US 10-year) The upper zones are very bad for the entire financial system. Powell was rattled through his whole chairmanship whenever it approached 4.8–5%, and now 6% is looming. I'm not a panicker and I don't like looking that far ahead, but if we get to 6%, the S&P 500 and the whole US market fall vertically, and risk assets almost straight down. For now these are just thoughts; I don't really want to trade a crisis. USDJPY / 6JU2026 / 6JZ2026 (JPY) This is the main trade idea for the coming weeks. I expect this move from the Bank of Japan: a final impulse up to 166.75–167, then the intervention and a strong reversal toward 158–159. The main position is planned from that zone, counting on a fast strengthening of the yen after the central bank meetings. I'll trade it, and then we'll see what they paint until August 12. GBPUSD (GBP) If the euro heads to 1.1185, the pound needs to spill to 1.2919. Given the Bank of England is on Thursday and, like the ECB, won't hike and leaves it unchanged, the odds of a drop to 1.2919 are reduced but still exist. Working 1.3427 is also necessary, since that's the main Debt at the moment. And since it started falling earlier than the euro, it can pull back earlier too; there are also players in with options on the zone below. The pound looks weaker than the euro but is also near a potential reversal, so the main interest is buys from 1.3244, with a first target around 1.3427 and a further target of 1.3758. If the crisis scenario plays out, the decline could go deeper before a full recovery. For now I'm working the nearest zones and I'll decide on the rest by Wednesday. ESU2026 (S&P 500) Until Thursday's clearing these options are interesting if the S&P spills; that's also the week's maximum volatility, so let's see whether they give such a spill. Rising yields keep the pressure on US stocks, so for now I prefer selling into strength and buying only from predefined strong support zones. If the full crisis scenario plays out, the index could correct deeply, well below current levels. SIU2026 (Silver) For now I'm looking at further downside. The main interest is sells after a confirmed break, then a buy-back around 49.5. Silver stays a more volatile instrument than gold, so I'd expect a stronger move if the crisis scenario develops. GCZ2026 (Gold) The 10% zone for Monday is still alive, but I have big doubts they open with a rise; I like selling to the lower zones more. Given Tuesday is the semi-annual expiration, Wednesday brings a refinement of the zones. There's a very high probability that the contract's maximum volatility moves to 3562 on Wednesday, but we'll see what the CME calculates after the expiration. All the money sits in these options, so don't forget the option of a spill down to 3562, and 6% on the Treasuries hints they could go there. The biggest buy interest is the 3550–3560 area, where I expect a major medium-term bottom to form. After that, the dollar goes into weakness and everything else into growth through the end of the year, and gold gets to 4530–4540 easily. Until that zone is reached, I prefer looking for sells from the resistances. These are zones and scenarios I'm watching, not a call to trade. Let price come to your levels and let the reads converge first. Educational only, not investment advice. Trading carries a high risk of capital loss. Past results don't guarantee future performance. #ConfluxMethod #trading #futures #options #forex #gold #silver #orderflow