BTC/USDT - Breakout From the Descending ChannelBitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.PKatsumi-NoharaBreakout From the Descending Channel, but the Patience Test Is Not Over Yet Katsu on the Command Bridge. Let’s check the BTC heavy cruiser on our radar. On the BTC 4H chart, we are seeing an interesting structure right now. Price has broken upward from the previous purple descending channel, which looks positive at first glance. This shows that the momentum of the previous downtrend has weakened, and buyers have started to take back some control. But I would not open the champagne yet. The current movement can be placed inside a green ascending channel, but in my opinion, this is not necessarily the beginning of a strong and lasting uptrend. It looks more like the market is trying to escape the previous downward movement, but still does not have the clean strength needed to launch the rocket immediately. I can rather imagine BTC moving for a while longer inside a range/channel/nerve-destroying sideways structure. I will not bore anyone with my Elliott Wave theory, but in my opinion, this still looks very much like a wave 4. And wave 4 usually does exactly this. It stretches, twists, and exhausts the market until half of the traders no longer know whether they are long, short, or simply suffering from nervous system damage. :))) In my opinion, this is roughly where we are now. The black path is obviously not an exact prediction. It does not show that BTC will move candle by candle exactly like this. I only wanted to show the type of movement I am expecting. First, there may still be an upside attempt, then a longer and more exhausting sideways phase, and eventually even a deeper move lower. Of course, a larger macro or geopolitical headline can mess this up at any time. If tensions around the Strait of Hormuz return, or if Mr. Trump drops another market-moving sentence, the chart can quickly rewrite the entire battle plan. But based on the current 4H picture, there may still be an upside attempt in the short term. On the bigger picture, however, I am still clearly expecting lower prices, because wave 5 is still waiting. Several important zones are marked on the chart: green zones: 4H bullish Order Blocks / possible support areas red zones: 4H bearish Order Blocks / possible resistance areas purple, orange levels: 1H Order Blocks / possible support areas (important reaction support and resistance levels) both 4H and 1H Order Blocks are also marked separately This is useful because the 4H OBs provide the bigger picture, while the 1H OBs can help refine the entry. The current price is around 65,900, so we are exactly in a zone where I would not want to enter blindly. Resistance above, support below, and in the middle we have the market doing its usual circus act. In this situation, the question is not whether we go long or short now. The real question is what kind of reaction we get at each Order Block. Important Zones Resistance / Bearish Zones 67,259 - 67,428 This is the nearest important resistance zone. This is the first serious test for the current upside attempt. If price moves into this area but cannot stay above it, rejection may follow. 70,696 This is a higher resistance / decision area. If BTC reaches this level, many traders may become very bullish again, and that is exactly why it can be dangerous. This is where late longs can be collected. 73,182 This is the higher major bearish Order Block / supply zone. If price reaches this area, I would expect strong resistance. Support / Bullish Zones 65,418 Nearby green zone. This is the first area where I would watch for a buyer reaction in case of a smaller retest. 64,528 Important 1H / intermediate reaction level. If 65,418 does not hold, this can become a more serious decision point. 63,485 - 62,319 This is already a deeper and stronger bullish OB area. If price returns here, I would pay much more attention to the long side reaction. 61,000 Important lower support and a more serious defensive zone. 58,637 - 57,133 Deeper retest / larger bullish OB area. If price drops here, then in my opinion most of the current upside attempt has already faded. 54,494 Deep defensive zone. If we get here, then we are no longer talking about the small channel, but about the larger bearish scenario being activated. This OB is almost 2 years old. Market Structure The breakout from the purple descending channel is a positive sign, but by itself it is not enough. To treat this as a real bullish reversal, I would want to see the following: price holds the 65,418-64,528 area retests do not fall apart local lows keep rising the 4H structure does not close strongly back inside the previous descending channel BTC eventually breaks through the 67,259-67,428 resistance area If this happens, then we can start talking about the market trying to build higher toward 70,696, and possibly even 73,182. But if the structure starts falling apart below the 65k area, then the current upside attempt can easily turn out to be only a corrective climb back. Long Battle Plan - From an OB Retest On the long side, I would not try to play hero at the top of the range. In my opinion, the cleaner long can come from a retest. Long Setup - From the Deeper OB This is actually the second and more patient long opportunity, but this is the only one I will share with you. This is the 63,485-62,319 zone. This would be a deeper retest, but many times these are the cleaner smart money entries, because by then the late longs have already been shaken out. What I would look for: slow drift or wick into the 63,485-62,319 zone liquidity sweep strong rejection candle bullish structure shift on the lower timeframe the zone holding after the retest Possible Long Plan Entry: 63,400-62,400, after confirmation Stop Loss: below 61,000 TP1: 64,528 TP2: 65,418 TP3: 67,259 This long would be much cleaner for me than chasing the move around the current price. Short Battle Plan - From Bearish OB Rejection On the short side, there are two reasonable zones right now. One is the nearby resistance around 67,259-67,428. The other is the higher zone around 70,696. I will write down the closer plan for you, because my analyses are already almost short novels when I try to explain everything. :))) Short Setup 1 - Rejection From 67,259-67,428 This is the nearby short opportunity. If price moves into this zone but cannot stay above it, this could become a good reaction short. What I would like to see: price wicks into the 67,259-67,428 zone momentum slows down there a rejection wick appears bearish ChoCh forms on the lower timeframe price falls back below 66,000 then fails to reclaim that level on the retest In simple terms: bearish OB -> wick up -> rejection -> bearish ChoCh -> retest -> short Possible Short Plan Entry: 67,000-67,500, after confirmation Stop Loss: above 68,200 TP1: 65,418 TP2: 64,528 TP3: 63,485 This short looks good only if BTC simply wicks into the zone, collects the late longs, and then falls back below it. But if price closes strongly above 67,428 on the 4H timeframe and then holds the retest, this short idea is dead. What Am I Watching Closely Now? The most important question right now is whether BTC can hold the 65,418-64,528 area. If yes, the first upside part of the black path can work, and we may see an attempt toward 67,259-67,428, and possibly even 70,696. But if this zone fails, the current upside attempt weakens, and price could easily return toward 63,485-62,319. And if 61,000 also fails, then I would pay much more attention to the larger bearish scenario, where 58,637-57,133 can also come into play. This is not financial advice. The raccoon was simply thinking out loud about BTC today. I wrote down what I see, what I think, and how I would trade it. Then either I am right... or we learn from it. :))