Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister for most of the past two decades, faces a challenge not from a career politician but from a retired general who entered politics only last year.A Channel 12 poll on July 13 found that 43% of Israelis preferred Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, compared with 34% for Netanyahu. Just months ago, Eisenkot’s fledgling Yashar party trailed well behind Likud in most polls.Israel votes on October 27, its first election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that killed around 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage. The hostages have all since been accounted for, with some returning alive and others dead; the final body was recovered in January 2026.Why is Netanyahu expected to lose?Three things stand out: war fatigue, a perception that Netanyahu avoids responsibility, and cracks inside his own coalition.First, the war didn’t end with Gaza. Israel called up 360,000 reservists after October 2023, and many have since been mobilised repeatedly as fighting spread to Lebanon and later Iran amid the ongoing war.Many reservists are now on their sixth or seventh mobilisation since the war began, according to The Times of Israel. Military leaders have warned of troop shortages, while reservists complain of burnout and resentment that Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men remain largely exempt from military service.Story continues below this adAlso in Explained | What Israel’s new law exempting Haredim from IDF means for its society, politicsSecond, Netanyahu is the only senior October 7-era official who hasn’t resigned or accepted responsibility; his defence minister, army chief, and domestic security chief all left over the failures. He has resisted calls for an independent state commission of inquiry into the 7 October failures, instead blaming military leaders and his predecessors.He is separately on trial for fraud, breach of trust, and bribery, which he denies.Third, his coalition is split over Haredi conscription. Seminary students have long been exempt from military service, but a Supreme Court ruling ended the exemption, deepening divisions over who should serve.On July 14, the coalition passed a bill temporarily shielding tens of thousands of Haredi draft evaders from arrest, despite opposition from the military. The measure deepened splits within the government, prompting ministerial resignations and rebellion from coalition lawmakers before Israel’s High Court froze it pending a legal challenge.Story continues below this adWho is Gadi Eisenkot?Eisenkot, 66, was born in Tiberias to a working-class Moroccan Jewish immigrant family and grew up in Eilat. He joined the Golani Brigade, rose to head Israel’s Northern Command, and in 2014 was chosen by Netanyahu as IDF chief of staff, commanding the entire military from 2015 to 2019.He is associated with the “Dahiyeh Doctrine”, a military strategy he first outlined in 2006 as Northern Command chief that advocates overwhelming force against civilian infrastructure in areas from which Israel is attacked to deter future attacks.Expert Explains | As modern warfare transforms, the lessons now for Indian defenceAfter October 7, he joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet, but resigned in mid-2024, warning ministers in a letter that Israel was mistaking small battlefield gains for a real strategy against Hamas.He briefly served as deputy leader of Benny Gantz’s centrist party before quitting it and the Knesset in 2025, then founded Yashar that September.Story continues below this adGideon Rahat, of the Israel Democracy Institute, told The Associated Press that Eisenkot’s biography is itself “anti-Netanyahu”: working-class and Moroccan-Jewish against Netanyahu’s US-educated background, four decades in uniform against a leader on trial for corruption, and a son killed in Gaza against Netanyahu’s own son, a podcaster who has lived part-time in Florida.Yashar, meaning “straight” in Hebrew, launched its campaign on 30 June. Its top platform priorities include strengthening Israel’s national security and establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures.It calls for a defence strategy built on advanced planning, and, under the slogan “Service for All”, proposes expanding national service to Arab citizens and Haredi men, most of whom don’t currently serve.So, could Netanyahu actually lose? And how does Israel actually vote?Story continues below this adIf Netanyahu’s government reaches October, it’ll be the first Israeli administration to serve a full term since 1973, and the first election held on schedule in 40 years.Israel has held five elections since 2019 alone, illustrating the instability of its coalition politics. Polls remain mixed: a Channel 13 survey on July 9 showed Eisenkot’s Yashar leading Likud 23-22, with the opposition projected to win 69 seats against 51 for Netanyahu’s coalition, while Channel 14 put Likud well ahead this month.Israelis don’t vote for a prime minister directly. They vote for a party, following which the president asks whichever leader seems best placed to build a coalition commanding at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, so the party with the most votes doesn’t automatically govern.Arab-majority parties, projected to win around 10 seats combined, could prove decisive. But Netanyahu, Bennett and Eisenkot have all ruled out relying on their support, potentially leaving even the largest bloc short of a parliamentary majority.The author is an intern with The Indian Express