S&P500 futures moving according to the planE-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!YMagnifyYou can look my previous analysis about ES1! - everything has been according to the plan so far. So where are we? Honestly, this is one of the trickiest setups in months. The macro backdrop is genuinely binary: if FOMC holds AND Mag Seven earnings are solid AND AI capex is framed positively, this market could snap back toward 7,600 by Friday. If any of those three disappoint — especially the FOMC or Meta/Microsoft: you're looking at 7,370, and the 7,232 structural low becomes a real conversation for August. If the market ends July with losses, it sets an inauspicious tone heading into August and September, historically the two weakest months of the year for equities. CNBC The short version: the Iran relief was real. The market chose not to believe it today. That's telling you something about where the real fear is — and it's not in the Middle East anymore. It's in the AI earnings calls that start tomorrow night. Thanks for reading and following YMagnify!