In a Wall Street Journal article by Fed follower Nick Timiraos, next week's Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up as one of the most uncertain in years. Timiraos says the decision has become a close call as renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices strengthen the case for another rate hike, while softer inflation data continue to argue for leaving policy unchanged. The biggest wildcard remains new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has repeatedly emphasized restoring price stability but has given no indication which way he is leaning.The case for holding rates unchangedJune inflation data came in softer than expected, with underlying price pressures easing.Employment data do not show an overheating labor market that would require tighter policy.Many Fed officials view tariffs and higher oil prices as temporary supply shocks that monetary policy should largely look through.Some policymakers believe inflation has likely peaked and should gradually move lower over coming quarters.Holding rates now would allow the Fed more time to assess whether the latest rise in oil prices proves temporary.The case for raising ratesRenewed fighting involving Iran has lifted oil prices and increased inflation risks.Core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target despite recent improvement.The economy has continued to show resilience, with financial conditions remaining relatively accommodative.Several Fed officials believe current policy may no longer be restrictive enough.Some argue a modest rate hike now could reduce the need for larger increases later if inflation proves more persistent.The key takeawayTimiraos notes that the Fed appears closely divided, making Chairman Kevin Warsh's position especially important.Even if rates remain unchanged next week, the debate is unlikely to end, with many officials potentially shifting their focus toward a possible rate hike at the September meeting should inflation risks persist.The market is pricing a 40% chance of a hike at the September meeting. US stocks continue to trade under pressure with the NASDAQ now down 2.5% and the S&P down -1.3%. For the NASDAQ index, it is testing a key swing area between 24913 and 25109. The current price is between those levels at 25037. The 100 day moving average is also moving higher and getting closer at 24686.59. The price last traded below that moving average back on April 13. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.