Key TakeawaysTyler Radke from Citi increased Palantir’s fiscal 2027 revenue growth projection to 53%, significantly above the 45% Street consensusWhile maintaining a Buy recommendation, Radke reduced the price target from $225 to $200 citing valuation compressionThe firm anticipates a recovery in US Commercial segment performance following first quarter weakness, fueled by AIP platform expansionRecent partner and management discussions revealed “largely positive” sentiment across commercial and government divisionsPalantir’s trailing twelve-month free cash flow margin of 54.1% ranks among the software industry’s elite performersShares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) captured renewed analyst focus Thursday following Citi’s decision to increase earnings projections before the company’s forthcoming quarterly earnings release. Trading at approximately $131.82, PLTR has declined about 20.5% during the last six-month period.Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTRTyler Radke, analyst at Citi, maintained his Buy recommendation on the shares while reducing the price objective to $200 from the previous $225, attributing the adjustment to valuation multiple contraction.Notwithstanding the reduced price objective, Radke’s fundamental forecast exceeds Street expectations considerably. His updated model projects 53% revenue expansion for fiscal 2027, substantially higher than the consensus Wall Street forecast hovering around 45%.The optimistic thesis hinges on a recovery within Palantir’s US Commercial business unit. While this division experienced an unforeseen deceleration during the first quarter, Radke contends the weakness was transient.“We expect US Commercial to rebound after an unexpected deceleration in Q1, driven by improved resource prioritization and AIP proliferation across new industries and geographies,” Radke wrote in a note to clients.His forecast anticipates US Commercial Remaining Deal Value net additions returning to the $800 million-plus levels witnessed during the latter half of 2025, which should trigger additional upward estimate adjustments moving toward 2027.Insights From Channel ChecksAccording to Radke, mid-quarter discussions with ecosystem partners and company leadership yielded “largely positive” feedback. He emphasized sustained traction among global systems integrators and independent software vendors.Notable client acquisitions from AIPCon 10 were spotlighted, especially within Legal and neocloud sectors. Internationally, Radke drew attention to a substantial insurance sector victory in Mexico and an expanding partnership with Nvidia in the Sovereign division.Within the federal government segment, Radke observed broadening applications throughout the Department of Defense demonstrated at the AWS Summit. He further indicated the USDA engagement could deliver continued positive impacts during the year’s second half.While Radke recognized that competitive displacement activity has risen, he believes the expanding portfolio of reference accounts will maintain growth momentum.Financial Performance MetricsPalantir reported billings of $1.74 billion during the first quarter, with year-over-year expansion averaging 67.6% across the most recent four quarters.The organization’s customer acquisition cost recovery period stood at 5.3 months this quarter, representing exceptional efficiency within enterprise software benchmarks. This effectiveness provides Palantir with greater flexibility to allocate resources toward product development without excessive reliance on sales and marketing expenditure.The company’s free cash flow margin averaged 54.1% throughout the trailing twelve months, positioning it among software sector leaders.At present valuation levels, the equity trades at 40.5x forward price-to-sales multiple.Citi observed that PLTR’s post-first-quarter weakness — declining 8% while the IGV index gained 6% — creates a more favorable risk/reward profile entering the upcoming earnings announcement.Radke noted that conversations with CFO Dave Glazer reinforced the firm’s conviction regarding the commercial segment recovery narrative.The post Palantir (PLTR) Stock Gets Bullish Citi Upgrade Despite 20% Decline in 2025 appeared first on Blockonomi.